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Strong capital inflows to EMs have re-ignited concerns about asset bubbles and
global imbalances as Brazil puts “sand on the wheel” by taxing inflows.
􀂄 Chinese growth remained strong in Q3, but we continue to expect some
moderation in coming quarters.
􀂄 This week’s euro area data showed further improvements in confidence and
activity, but the UK again disappointed.
􀂄 The Fed and the BoE face some tricky decisions on QE in coming weeks; the MPC
could well swing back in favour of a further extension of QE.
Developed Economies
US: Dovish tilt in the near term 7
The growing divergence in the FOMC about appropriate monetary policy is rooted in
disagreement about the risks to growth and inflation next year.
Euro area: Shaping up 11
For the euro area as a whole, we forecast real GDP to increase by 1.9% in 2011, after an
expected rise of 1.6% in 2010.
UK: GDP disappoints but consumers could surprise 17
GDP contracted unexpectedly in Q3 and we have pushed back the timing of our
forecast for policy tightening.
Japan: Exports and export dependence – a closer look 20
Export headlines continue to look soft due to JPY appreciation, and net exports may
contribute less to Q3 GDP than previously expected due to strong imports.
Emerging Markets
China: Shifting balance between growth and inflation risks 23
We raise our 2009 GDP growth forecast to 8.6% on a strong Q3 outturn and maintain
our projection of 9.6% growth in 2010.
Emerging Asia (ex-China): Engines revving up again 32
The tone of recent activity data has been more positive, with autos holding up despite
the expiry of cash-for-clunkers and electronics making a decided turn for the better.
EMEA: Searching for the right policy mix 35
The search for the right mix between monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies may
create some seemingly inconsistent policies and unorthodox policy proposals.
Latin America: Focus shifts to policy 38
Policy developments across the region have become key drivers of asset prices.
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