2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：92
        【目录或简介】：

Contents
Economic Research note
Global manufacturing to keep on
booming 11
Normal US home sales? You’re
soaking in it 13
An uneven boost to growth from US
households 15
Japan: economic recovery to broaden
to services and SMEs 17
Greek crisis: over for now, but
medium-term risks remain 19
New mining boom filling Australia’s
investment pipeline 23
Brazil: above-target inflation for
the next two years 25
Global Economic Outlook Summary 4
Global Central Bank Watch 6
The J.P. Morgan View: Markets 7
Selected recent research from
J.P. Morgan Economics 10
Data Watches
United States 27
Euro area 35
Japan 41
Canada 47
Mexico 49
Brazil 51
Andeans 53
United Kingdom 55
Switzerland 59
Russia 61
Turkey 63
Australia and New Zealand 65
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 69
Korea 73
ASEAN 75
India 79
Regional Data Calendars 84

They call it Good Friday, but Thursday’s just as fine
Over the past year, a debate has raged about the power of business cycle lift in
the aftermath of a deep recession and financial crisis. Policy stimulus sparked
recoveries during the second half of last year. Traditional business cycle dynamics
would point to a feedback loop developing from this as income gains
and financial market improvement bolstered confidence, producing a positive
turn in private-sector behavior. However, with credit markets and balance
sheets still impaired in a number of large economies, there have been strong
voices arguing that this loop would be short-circuited and that growth would
falter when policy supports wane.
The March data flow provides decisive news validating our view that business
cycle dynamics are driving the global expansion forward. Growth is picking up
again following a modest downshift into the new year, largely because rising
profits and asset prices are prompting firms across the globe to turn toward expansion.
As this turn by business lifts labor income and household expectations,
consumer spending is sustaining solid gains, even as global fiscal stimulus is
fading. To be sure, continued tight credit conditions and ongoing adjustments to
public- and private-sector balance sheets will temper the pace of growth. But
the debate is now over, as the foundation of sustained and synchronized abovetrend
global growth appears firmly in place.
In this regard, today’s US employment report for March is important in confirming
a transition to solid labor income growth. Through the noise created by
weather and Census hiring, there appears to be only a modest return of privatesector
job creation thus far. However, the benefits of this cautious return to hiring
are being amplified by a lengthening in the workweek. For an economy with
over 100,000,000 private-sector employees, small changes in the workweek, if
sustained, have large implications for income. Indeed, the rising workweek has
provided much of the fuel for the strong 4.8% annualized pace of the payroll
labor income proxy over the past three months.

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