发帖
雷达卡
EMEA - Banks
‘New Normal’ CEE: Slower
Growth and Profitability
New loan growth only one-third of pre-crisis level at
9%: With halving nominal GDP growth and penetration
levels increasingly constrained by affordability, we think
new normal loan growth will be only 9% vs. 33% before.
Revisiting the convergence concept also suggests
excess penetration of 57-65% in Ukraine, Bulgaria and
Latvia, which we think will drive further asset quality
debate and constrain the growth outlook for longer as
the countries de-lever.
Tighter liquidity regulation is a key risk for Western
EU banks’ CEE exposure: We estimate that 20% to
25% of EU banks’ CEE exposures (~
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