瑞士信贷：美国房屋建造行业研究报告2009年11月

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Traffic Slows in Late October; Waiting for
Rebound
■
October traffic slips from September levels, sharp divergence between
early and late October. Our October survey of real estate agents showed a
slight decrease in traffic for the month as a whole with our buyer traffic index
inching down to 44.0 in October from 44.8 in September. However, the stats
for the month do not tell the complete story, as traffic early in the month was
above September levels, as last-minute tax credit-driven buyers hurried to
take advantage of the credit (which will likely be extended and expanded).
However, late in the month we saw a decline in traffic, with our traffic index
down 5 points from the levels at the start of the month. We fear that many of
the first-time buyers have already acted and that there will be less entry-level
demand even with an extension of the tax credit. We continue to believe that
the tax credit pulled forward demand and that there will likely be a lull in
buyer traffic at the end of 2009 and start of 2010.
■
Will traffic rebound following an extension of the tax credit? We
previously noted that it would be important to watch traffic trends in mid-
October for evidence of a slowdown once it was no longer possible to sign a
contract and have closing before November 30th. We now think the key will
be watching to see what happens to traffic in November once the tax credit
is officially extended and expanded. If traffic levels improve from the
subdued levels seen as of late, it would be an indication that the slowdown
in traffic was primarily related to uncertainty around the continuation of the
tax credit. However, if traffic does not rebound, it is likely an indication that
demand was pulled forward by the tax credit.
■
Slowing in Minneapolis and Seattle; Strength in Las Vegas. We saw
meaningful declines in our traffic index in both Minneapolis and Seattle,
whereas most other markets were relatively stable. Las Vegas was the
only key market to see a sharp rebound in demand. The highest levels of
traffic were seen in Ft Myers, Las Vegas, Orlando, Los Angeles, the
Inland Empire, and Washington, D.C. The key driver of traffic in all
markets is the favorable affordability, which continues to lead to strong
demand from investors and first time buyers who are fleeing rentals.

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