瑞士信贷：欧洲电信行业研究报告2009年7月

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European Telecoms
SECTOR REVIEW
H2 outlook
■
Upgrade European telco sector to Overweight. Consensus sector 2009E
eps forecasts have fallen 14% this year and we are now much closer to
consensus (c 2% below). The reduction in size of consensus downgrades
we expect from here has typically coincided with a rally in the sector. We
also see less downside risk to telcos 2010E eps (<5%) than our strategists
do for the stockmarket (18%) whilst investor weightings have reduced. The
sector PE of 9x and PE Rel (0.7x) are at record lows, and risk of valuedestroying
M&A is reducing. We upgrade the sector to Overweight. We
upgrade FT (was Underperform) and PT (was Neutral) to Outperform.
■
Reducing downside risk to eps. The economy impact on the sector is now
much more factored in. European mobile has so far shown less than 1-1
impact from the economy and fixed line little impact at all, whilst GDP
forecasts for 2009E have stabilised. We expect lag factors in European
mobile as customer contracts renew, but our forecasts of a 4-5% revenue
impact from the economy on European mobile look low enough. CEE
remains a risk to consensus forecasts but less than earlier this year. Lag
factors are still possible in IT services but this is only 10% of sector earnings.
■
Structural trends are likely to re-emerge as the macro shock recedes.
European mobile is ex-growth as MTRs and messaging undermine voice.
Mobile consolidation is likely in one or two markets (e.g. UK), but
competition is likely to increase in some others (e.g. France). Emerging
market mobile continues to face increasing competitive and regulatory
pressure, particularly in CEE. So we continue to prefer wireline, with an
increasing number of markets seeing prices increase.
■
Outperforms. We are now broadly in line with underlying consensus eps for
Telefonica, FT, Vodafone and Swisscom. We believe consensus now
reflects much more of the macro pressures in European mobile. Some risks
remain in emerging market consensus forecasts for FT (Poland) and
Vodafone (India, Turkey), but less than for some other sector names. We
also rate PT and Telenet Outperforms on wireline inflection, with domestic
prices rising. We also rate Inmarsat (structural growth) and Elisa (reducing
mobile competition) Outperform.
■
Underperforms. We expect good Q2 margins from TI but at the expense of
longer term market share, being in line with 2009E EBITDA consensus but
still below for 2010E. We also expect better Q2 margins for DT’s T-Mo US
but US revenue weakness and CEE still leave a risk of a small cut to 2009E
EBITDA guidance. Further weakness in emerging markets partly drive our
Underweight on TKA, TNOR and TLSN whilst C&W remains exposed to
potential late cycle effects in network services to enterprise.

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