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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Higher unit fuel cost and tariff cut
concerns more than priced in by
underperformance since August
􀀗 Outlook improving as coal price risk
comes down, utilisation picks up, and
capacity expansion accelerates
􀀗 Top picks: CR Power - promising vertical
integration outlook; Huaneng - strong
earnings recovery not in price
Bad news priced in. We believe IPPs' substantial
underperformance since Aug 09 (down 19-30% versus +3%
for the HSCEI) has more than reflected negative news such
as upward adjustment in contract coal pricing, the
government’s reduced urgency to raise IPP tariffs, and
unconfirmed down/upward tariff adjustments for power
plants in coastal/inner parts of China.
We expect investors to revisit the sector based on:
1) strong earnings recovery in 2009 on accelerating power
consumption growth, 2) lower coal price risk as government
is in a good position to manage coal supply and IPPs are
speeding up vertical integration in coal, and 3) accelerating
capacity expansion in order to achieve the government’s
goal of maintaining high economic growth longer term.
Top picks, Huaneng and CR Power. At the current level,
China IPP valuations appear attractive, trading well below
our target prices as well as at the low end of historical PB
and PE ranges. Within the sector, we prefer Huaneng as
strong earnings recovery is not in the price, and CR Power
for its promising vertical integration outlook.
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