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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Wide geographic divergence; prefer IPPs in coastal region .......... 6
Regional divergence at a glance ...............................................................................................6
Dark spread ranging from Rmb70/MWh to Rmb190/MWh ......................................................7
Three key reasons for varying dark spread levels .....................................................................8
Still prefer IPPs with more capacity in east coastal regions......................................................8
Tariff rebalancing is largely neutral ................................................. 9
Modest on-grid tariff adjustment announced............................................................................9
Impact of tariff rebalancing .....................................................................................................10
End-user tariff hike of Rmb28/MWh .......................................................................................10
Next tariff review may encounter inflation headwinds............................................................11
Rising spot coal prices are a real concern..................................... 12
Spot coal prices up in both domestic and international markets.............................................12
Blended coal price outlook in 2010 .........................................................................................13
Power demand and supply forecasts ............................................ 15
Assumptions/earnings/target price change ................................. 16
Key assumption changes across the sector............................................................................16
Datang Power (0991 HK, Sell, target price HK$3.1) ................................................................16
Huaneng power (0902 HK, Hold, target price HK$5.2)............................................................17
CR Power (0836 HK, Buy, target price HK$22.2) ....................................................................18
China Power (2380 HK, Hold, TP HK$2.3)...............................................................................19
Huadian Power (1071, HK, Sell, TP HK$2.0)............................................................................20
Appendix A: China IPPs in charts ................................................... 22
Monthly power sector update........................................................ 24
Power consumption................................................................................................................24
New capacity addition.............................................................................................................25
Utilization rate .........................................................................................................................26
Coal price and inventory..........................................................................................................27
Coal sea freight .......................................................................................................................28
China Resources Power .................................................................. 32
Huaneng Power Intl......................................................................... 34
China Power Int'l ............................................................................. 36
Datang Int'l Power........................................................................... 38
Huadian Power ................................................................................ 40
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