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全球央行货币政策分析（11月份）
出版时间及名称】：20091118
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：22
【目录或简介】MS FAYRE puts the current fair value for 10-year
Treasury bond yields at 3.3% – bang in line with actual
yields. This suggests to us that bond markets are
pricing in the sweet spot of exceptionally low yields and
benign inflation from Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech
on Monday. Even if inflation stays benign, bond
markets don’t seem to be compensating investors for
macroeconomic or fiscal risks. Despite Bernanke’s and
ECB President Trichet’s claims that longer-term
inflation expectations are stable, we remain sceptical.
The dispersion of individual forecasts from survey
measures and our conversations with investors suggest
little support for this claim. Finally, low bond yields in
the US and other major economies tend to depress
bond yields elsewhere in the world, making it more
difficult for early-hiking central banks to find policy
traction through higher bond yields. p 2
Central Bank Watch
Euro Area: A Slow Recovery Gets Underway p 7
Japan: Still Cautious p 8
UK: CPI Inflation Starts a Steep (Brief) Ascent p 8
Canada: Pieces in Place for a Robust Recovery p 9
Russia: A Still Stronger RUB p 9
Czech Republic: Prudence Prevails p 10
Hungary: More Easing Likely p 10
Turkey: Short-Term Outlook p 11
Israel: Pressure Building on the BoI p 11
South Africa: Policy Rates Unchanged p 12
AXJ: ‘Exit’ Strategy – The Road Ahead p 12
China: A Dialogue on the Renminbi p 13
Hong Kong: A Fragile Recovery in 3Q09 p 13
India: Time to Map the ‘Exit’ p 14
Chile: Ready to Exit p 14
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