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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月巴西医疗行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Brazilian Healthcare looks poised for
outperformance. This is a secular tailwind story driven
by socio-demographics and penetration. Morgan
Stanley’s bullish view on 2010 GDP (+4.8%) has some
extra short-term positive implications on both growth
and margins. We are raising earnings estimates and
upgrading ratings throughout the value chain (see table
at right).
Moving our sector thesis one step forward. In line
with our view, service providers had a great 2009 and
those who pay the bill (MCOs) a weak year. We expect
2010 will be good for all segments in the value chain, but
downstream companies will grow from a lower level and
will have “easier” comparatives during 2010e.
The opportunity: payers’ inflection point still not
priced in by the market. Upstream companies were
the clear winners last year, outperforming Bovespa by
50% with a consensus positive inflection point in 2H09.
Downstream underperformed by -4% and the
consensus still did not move up. We see good reasons
for strong volumes (formal employment) and a
progressive recovery in MLR driven by prices and costs.
Amil is our top pick. It has proven cost advantages
(low MLR) thanks to a vertical integration that seems to
work well (quite unique on a global scale) and has
R$1bn cash position to consolidate the sector and
proven capex discipline. We believe 3Q was the
inflection point in margins.
We would also own Medial, DASA, Profarma,
Cremer and Drogasil. For the same top-down reasons,
company-specific bottom-ups and generalized valuation
upside. The sector has de-rated from 19x EBITDA in
2007 to 7x and 4x EBITDA 2010-11e and we see
reasons for a rerating going forward to the 10+xEBITDA
and 20+xEPS.
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