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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月香港地产行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
Positive view of commercial properties on track. We continue our call on
the outperformance of the landlords, as substantiated by their performance
since early August 2009. The landlords, on average, have outperformed the
market by 2.5%, while the developers have underperformed by 7.3%. A
recovery in office rentals has been seen in the recent bottoming out of
Central office rents. We believe that demand will turn positive in 4Q09. The
business cycle is on track to a recovery, which should provide strong support
to office rents. For developers, the drivers are expected to shift back to
fundamentals. The possibility of a repeated massive liquidity inflow in 2010
is greatly reduced, in our view.
■
Policy risks overstated. Fear of government intervention is expected to
cause a short-term price correction of 5-8%. However, we believe the
government will not succumb to the use of a visible hand intervening in the
market. Most importantly, average housing units are still affordable for the
average person. We do not think the government has the responsibility of
controlling the prices of luxury property.
■
Preference for landlords. Hongkong Land remains our top pick, with an
upgraded target price of US$5.81 (from US$5.0), followed by Great Eagle,
Swire and Hysan. While we are expecting flat residential prices next year,
we like Cheung Kong for its mass-residential exposure and upgrade our
rating to an OUTPERFORM from Neutral. We also like SHKP mostly for its
prime exposure to investment properties. Kerry is upgraded to a NEUTRAL
from Underperform.
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