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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月韩国休闲娱乐行业研究报告
【作者】：SHINHAN证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：30
【目录或简介】：
Casino stocks are cheap, travel stocks are
not yet
The outlook is better for the entertainment/leisure sector next year
The entertainment/leisure sector is now poised to deliver better in 2010
after the worst in 2009. The entertainment/leisure sector (casino, tourism,
film industries) has entered a recovery phase in 2H09 after a sluggish 1H09,
hit by unfavorable macro factors, swine flu, looming regulatory, and 2009
slow demand industries. As long as the current trend continues, the
entertainment/leisure sector will be on a steady growth track in 2H09.
Eyeing on 2H10, we recommend a positive approach to the sector amid
dissipating uncertainties.
Hot issues for the casino industry: revenue caps/IPO of GKL The
Gambling Industry Supervisory Committee’s revenue caps will undermine the
growth of the gambling industry including the casino business. The new
regulation will lead to valuation discounts of casino stocks. However, it has
not yet been decided how to implement casino revenue caps. Grand Korea
Leisure (GKL), the leader in foreigner-only casinos, is expected to come
under investors’ attention due to its IPO. The offering price is W12,000 with
a dividend yield of 5% and a P/E ratio of 7.4x, which looks attractive.
Hot issues for the tourism industry: the H1N1 flu virus/the won/zero
commissions The tourism industry is estimated to go up in 1H10 before
going down in 2H10. The sector is going through one of the worst times in
2009, hit by many obstacles including the H1N1 flu virus. Tourism stocks
will likely remain weak for the time being as the flu is expected to have a
negative impact until 1Q10. The stabilizing won/dollar rate is positive. The
adoption of zero commissions by Korean Air and some foreign airlines from
2010 will help strengthen top-tier travel agencies’ market presence and
earnings.
Movie industry: ticket price hike effects The hike in ticket prices is
expected to bring a cash flow into the withering movie industry. The recent
poor performance of the industry was caused by the poor performance of the
filming industry. However, the ticket price hike is expected to bring the
industry an additional cash flow of $100bn or more. As a result, the market is
expected to see an increase in quality contents, bringing a positive feedback
effect into the industry’s value chain and is expected to return more
shareholder value, GKL (coverage planned) sports a high dividend yield and an
attractive valuation, and CJ CGV benefits from the movie industry’s new cash
flow boost from a ticket price raise.
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