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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国休闲娱乐行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
2010 Jurisdictional Market
Outlook
Atlantic City –Our 2010 outlook on Atlantic City remains negative as the competitive
landscape is set to intensify as supply continues to come on line in Pennsylvania
(SugarHouse casino opens in fall 2010 and possibly a standalone casino in Philadelphia
sometime in 2011) and existing casinos ramp up marketing efforts to lure the day-tripper
away from Atlantic City. Furthermore, the recent legislation to permit table games in
Pennsylvania is yet another negative for Atlantic City as they lose one of their few remaining
advantages.
Connecticut. We maintain our downbeat outlook for Connecticut as we estimate gaming
revenues to decline in the mid single digits in 2010. While we do expect consumer
discretionary spending to be stronger than 2009, we believe that competition from New York
(Yonkers) and Rhode Island (Twin River and Lincoln) and a still soft regional economy, will
continue to exert pressure on Connecticut gaming revenues. On a positive note, Connecticut
casino operators received somewhat of a relief as New York lawmakers withdrew their
support for Aqueduct Entertainment Group’s (AEG) plan to run a casino at the Aqueduct
racetrack, hence delaying the project for now. We believe that a casino at the Aqueduct is a
negative for Connecticut and Atlantic City.
Colorado. Our 2010 outlook for Colorado is stable as we expect gaming revenues to
increase in the low single digits, primarily benefiting from the implementation of Amendment
50 (already in effect since July 2, 2009) and the opening of Ameristar Black Hawk's 500 room
hotel tower (November 2009). As a reminder, Amendment 50 permits operators to open the
facility for 24 hours, increases the betting limit to $100 (previously $5) and install roulette and
craps table games. On the flip side, we do expect yr/yr comps to get tougher in the second
half of the year as Amendment 50 anniversaries (on July 2, 2010. On a market basis, we
expect Black Hawk to continue to out-perform Cripple Creek and Central City, thanks to
Ameristar’s $235 million hotel expansion, which we believe should growth the market in
2010.
California. Over the past four years, California has clearly emerged as one of the most
formidable players in the gaming industry. However, its recent performance has felt the
impact of the recession. From signing contracts in September 1999 and the subsequent
approval by California voters in March 2000 (Proposition 1A), we estimate that the gaming
industry in the Golden State has grown to approximately $7.0 billion by year-end 2009 (-4.6%
versus $7.3 billion in 2008). We estimate the $7.0 billion was generated among 60 tribes that
have over 69,000 slot machines in operation. In addition to slots, we estimate these tribes
had approximately 2,120 table games at year-end. Looking to 2010, we expect gaming
revenues to be down as a weaker regional economy, coupled with higher taxes in the wake
of the enormous state budget deficit, will further impair the average California consumer.
Illinois. We expect Illinois to generate flat revenues in 2010. We believe that Illinois
operators should benefit from the easy yr/yr comparatives (Penn National’s Empress Joliet
was temporarily closed for 3 months in 2009) and the anniversary of expansions across the
border in the Lake Michigan market (Harrah’s Horseshoe Hammond and Boyd Blue Chip). On
the flip side, revenues will be somewhat affected by the anniversary of the Rock Island
casino expansion and opening of River City casino in St Louis, which we believe will
negatively impact the Casino Queen and Alton Belle (St Louis market accounts for
approximately 16% of total Illinois revenues). Longer term, we expect same store revenues
to decrease as Midwest Gaming & Entertainment opens a new casino in Des Plaines, Illinois,
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