黃河泉 发表于 2018-4-4 16:35 
Great! I'll do that as well.
可是我又出现新的问题,还想麻烦一下老师有空解答疑惑

我用对数模型回归,无论选择固定效应还是随机效应,结果总是拟合优度很低,有两三个解释变量的回归系数不显著,结果如图
- . xtreg lnofdi lnair lnict lnpower lngdp lnresource lnopen,fe
- Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 275
- Group variable: ctry Number of groups = 25
- R-sq: Obs per group:
- within = 0.5371 min = 11
- between = 0.0234 avg = 11.0
- overall = 0.0289 max = 11
- F(6,244) = 47.18
- corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.5246 Prob > F = 0.0000
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- lnofdi | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- lnair | .0603659 .1098937 0.55 0.583 -.1560953 .2768272
- lnict | .9704956 .0816744 11.88 0.000 .8096187 1.131372
- lnpower | -.6281981 .8517752 -0.74 0.462 -2.305969 1.049572
- lngdp | .2487294 .8882088 0.28 0.780 -1.500806 1.998264
- lnresource | .1383652 .2148405 0.64 0.520 -.2848134 .5615439
- lnopen | 1.520367 .6037515 2.52 0.012 .3311372 2.709597
- _cons | 3.478691 8.710976 0.40 0.690 -13.67961 20.637
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- sigma_u | 2.7179669
- sigma_e | 1.0946373
- rho | .86043675 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- F test that all u_i=0: F(24, 244) = 21.98 Prob > F = 0.0000
- . . xtreg lnofdi lnair lnict lnpower lngdp lnresource lnopen,re
- Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs = 275
- Group variable: ctry Number of groups = 25
- R-sq: Obs per group:
- within = 0.5199 min = 11
- between = 0.2580 avg = 11.0
- overall = 0.3506 max = 11
- Wald chi2(6) = 263.71
- corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- lnofdi | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- lnair | .2893075 .0806401 3.59 0.000 .1312558 .4473592
- lnict | 1.042473 .0659218 15.81 0.000 .9132686 1.171677
- lnpower | .2237829 .6694317 0.33 0.738 -1.088279 1.535845
- lngdp | -1.796964 .5623635 -3.20 0.001 -2.899176 -.694752
- lnresource | .247502 .126493 1.96 0.050 -.0004196 .4954237
- lnopen | 1.400474 .4574549 3.06 0.002 .5038788 2.297069
- _cons | 14.7688 2.819323 5.24 0.000 9.243027 20.29457
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- sigma_u | 1.3648108
- sigma_e | 1.0946373
- rho | .60854149 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
复制代码我尝试添加了lnofdi 的滞后项L.lnofdi ,发现拟合优度R^2显著由提高到0.9,但同时不显著的变量回归系数更多了;
. . xtreg lnofdi L.lnofdi lnair lnict lnpower lngdp lnresource lnopen
Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs = 250
Group variable: ctry Number of groups = 25
R-sq: Obs per group:
within = 0.7744 min = 10
between = 0.9938 avg = 10.0
overall = 0.9273 max = 10
Wald chi2(7) = 3084.54
corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lnofdi | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnofdi |
L1. | .9141726 .0231847 39.43 0.000 .8687314 .9596138
|
lnair | .0311075 .0195193 1.59 0.111 -.0071496 .0693645
lnict | -.0749671 .0397694 -1.89 0.059 -.1529137 .0029795
lnpower | .3788183 .1890692 2.00 0.045 .0082496 .7493871
lngdp | -.2724284 .160623 -1.70 0.090 -.5872438 .0423869
lnresource | -.0557918 .03207 -1.74 0.082 -.1186477 .0070642
lnopen | -.0878845 .1152619 -0.76 0.446 -.3137937 .1380248
_cons | 1.166367 .6155426 1.89 0.058 -.0400748 2.372808
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma_u | 0
sigma_e | .62433105
rho | 0 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
我也试过剔除lnpower,结果是回归系数都显著了,但R^2基本不变,依旧很低。如图
- . xtreg lnofdi lnair lnict lngdp lnresource lnopen
- Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs = 275
- Group variable: ctry Number of groups = 25
- R-sq: Obs per group:
- within = 0.5232 min = 11
- between = 0.2205 avg = 11.0
- overall = 0.3272 max = 11
- Wald chi2(5) = 269.55
- corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- lnofdi | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- lnair | .2654073 .0835172 3.18 0.001 .1017166 .4290981
- lnict | 1.042535 .0652069 15.99 0.000 .9147321 1.170338
- lngdp | -1.578451 .2821511 -5.59 0.000 -2.131457 -1.025445
- lnresource | .2645519 .1133324 2.33 0.020 .0424245 .4866793
- lnopen | 1.401376 .4562943 3.07 0.002 .5070552 2.295696
- _cons | 14.60574 3.012749 4.85 0.000 8.700864 20.51062
- -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
- sigma_u | 1.5279321
- sigma_e | 1.093618
- rho | .66124508 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
复制代码这是为什么呢?怎么弥补呢?问题有点长 ,麻烦老师了,谢谢!