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Goldman Sachs: 2010 Asia outlook
【出版时间及名称】：20091129
【作者】：高盛
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：75
【目录或简介】：
1.Start with an open, positive attitude
Our initial bias was skeptical but our macro and earnings analysis
became the foundation of our positive view: we expect 36% USD total
returns for Asia in 2010 on recovering margins and higher volume.
Price returns in Taiwan, Korea, and China are around 40%.
2.Stay adaptive and challenge assumptions
We upgrade Korea, which is no longer just a DM exporter, and retain
our overweights on China and Taiwan, which are both changing their
growth drivers. Favored sectors: tech and consumption/infrastructure.
3.Map out the major flows and undercurrents
Capacity utilization in Asia is higher than most believe, underpinning
margin recovery; EM and domestic demand help offset DM weakness,
for good volume increases. DM assets should flow to EM Asia because
of secular growth and asynchronous stimulus exits; policy makers may
use unorthodox measures to deal with these issues.
4.Choose your equipment wisely
We introduce a portfolio of our best stock ideas; we like cross-asset
trades like HSCEI upside contingent on US rates, Taiwan risk reversals
and Korean binary calls.
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