2009年11月台湾证券交易商行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月台湾证券交易商行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：76
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................3
KGI Securities (6008.TW; OW; PT=NT$21)..............................................................3
Capital Securities (6005.TW; OW; PT=NT$20) .........................................................3
Polaris Securities (2854.TW; N; PT=NT$18)..............................................................3
Investment Thesis ....................................................................4
Issue 1: Beneficiary of liquidity...............................................8
Repatriation of capital..................................................................................................8
Liquidity conditions remain supportive .....................................................................10
Issue 2: More upside from margin lending ..........................12
Market rally was driven by cash rather than credit ....................................................12
The real deal – this is a profitable business................................................................13
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................13
Issue 3: Key regulatory changes...........................................15
Optimism from cross-straits de-regulation.................................................................15
New capital measures to improve ROEs....................................................................17
Tax reform .................................................................................................................18
Deregulation a plus ....................................................................................................20
Market Review ........................................................................22
What has happened? ..................................................................................................22
Earnings forecasts .................................................................26
Fee Income.................................................................................................................26
NII - Margin Lending Business .................................................................................27
Trading gains .............................................................................................................28
Improving operating leverage ....................................................................................28
Normalized ROE comparison ....................................................................................28
Companies
KGI Securities............................................................................................................32
Capital Securities .......................................................................................................44
Polaris Securities........................................................................................................56
Yuanta FHC...............................................................................................................67

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