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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月法国银行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
Impairments should peak soon as NPL
formation is slowing; as a result we’re
moving to sustainable earnings-based
valuations
􀀗 Even with conservative forecasts and
using discounted multiples we see
significant potential returns for the
French banks; we retain our Overweight
(V) ratings on BNP, CASA and Socgen;
we keep Natixis at Neutral (V)
􀀗 We up our 2010 EPS forecasts 10% on
average and raise our target prices for
BNP to EUR66 (EUR54), CASA to EUR19
(EUR12.3), Socgen to EUR59 (EUR48)
and Natixis to EUR4 (EUR2)
Looking through
First came despair (Q1 2009) and then the relief rally (Q2/Q3).
Now comes the hard slog. We expect neither a dramatic macro
recovery nor a shock that could lead to a return to financial
Armageddon. Rather, we believe the operating environment
should be subdued in 2010, but, perhaps more critically, NPL
formation should slow, improving impairment charges.
As the cycle moves on so must our valuation technique. In
this note we move our methodology from price-book to a
normalised earnings analysis. And what this highlights is
that, even with our conservative (sub-consensus) EPS
forecasts and discounted valuation multiples, there are still
substantial potential returns left in the main French banks.
Stress-testing does not materially alter the picture.
The major French banks appear to be becoming less and less
homogeneous, but we believe each has its strengths: BNP
has upside potential from the Fortis merger, CASA is a play
on long term savings and French margin expansion and
Socgen simply looks undervalued. We retain our Overweight
(V) ratings on all three.
Natixis has come a long way in the last three months; the
credit guarantee from BPCE transforms its outlook.
Unfortunately, though, we believe this is now largely in the
price. Hence we retain our Neutral (V) rating
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