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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月日本宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Main message: Despite some slowdown, pace of improvement in sentiment at exporters – the drivers of
recovery – is faster than expected. Meanwhile, we see management plans as generally cautious; reality
doesn’t seem to be keeping up with the upturn in sentiment. Companies remain vulnerable to changes in
management environment, such as the fall-off of policy effects and rising yen, and concerns linger over the
sustainability of recovery. We continue to expect a mini-dip in early 2010.
What’s new: The headline recovery pace slowed, but we were still positively surprised by the overall
momentum of recovery. In contrast, the rise in non-manufacturing sentiment was limited, still stagnant in the
historical low range. Jul-Sept earnings were above guidance again, but due to increasingly opaque external
climate, the Tankan saw F3/10 FY profit plans unchanged, with capex schedule downgraded beyond our
cautious outlook.
Policy implications: This Tankan may appear as a tailwind for the BOJ, which expects a gradual path to
recovery. But the price index indicates further worsening in corporate sentiment, and we think the
government, eager to leave deflation behind, could start exerting stronger pressure on the BOJ. At the
special MPM on Dec. 1 the BOJ placed itself on the threshold of a new cycle of easing. In response to the
prolonged deflation outlook, it is likely to dish up a series of new easing menu. Ultimately, we expect the
BOJ’s sharing of an inflation target to be a policy surprise. In 2010 we expect a turnaround in Japan’s macro
policy, including currency policy.
Upside risks: Delay in executing an exit strategy raises Japan’s degree of monetary accommodation in
relative terms, and the weak yen adds to the driving force of exports.
Downside risks: Stiffer financial regulations could intensify moves to curb risk assets, placing limitations on
economic activity from the financial angle.
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