2010土耳其电信行业展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010土耳其电信行业展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Standing out in telco universe ......................................................... 5
Introducing a quantitative model...............................................................................................5
Measuring attractiveness of Turkey based on numbers only....................................................5
2009 vs. 2010E.................................................................................... 6
A brighter outlook for 2010E.....................................................................................................6
MNP implementation is the point of inflection .........................................................................6
Flat rate saga: the path to depressed mobile margins..............................................................7
Signals of rationalisation in 3Q09; impact in 2010E ..................................................................8
Macro economic drivers were more visible in the fixed-line market ...........................................8
Mobile outlook becomes more attractive towards 2010 ..........................................................9
Fixed-line voice is likely to remain shaded in 2010; ADLS subs growth recovery is likely ......11
Legal and regulatory outlook ......................................................... 12
Non-operational risks slightly cloud Turkcell’s 2010 outlook...................................................12
Legal battle between Turkcell and Turk Telekom....................................................................12
Recent Tax issues against Turkcell..........................................................................................12
Issues with the Telecom Authority .........................................................................................13
Country comparison in details ....................................................... 14
Introducing a quantitative model.............................................................................................14
Measuring attractiveness of Turkey based on numbers only..................................................14
Country rankings based on style factors .................................................................................16
Towards a simplified ownership in Turkcell ................................. 18
The “plan” of Altimo and TeliaSonera.....................................................................................18
The process could take 12-24 months ....................................................................................18
Post restructuring process......................................................................................................18
4Q preview....................................................................................... 20
A little surprise element for 4Q results ...................................................................................20
Mobile margin expansion in 4Q is likely to be muted .............................................................20
Little guidance is better than no guidance ..............................................................................21
Valuation and risks.......................................................................... 22
Turkcell: price target cut to TRY12.10 from TRY13.50 ............................................................22
Turk Telekom: price target cut to TRY5.85 from TRY5.90 .......................................................24
Running the numbers...................................................................... 27

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