20181014【充实计划】第859期

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读1365小时

10月第14天
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：《生来2：更为简单高效的远程工作法方式》
这本书是畅销书《重来》作者的新书，主要介绍远程工作的方法，这也是在大数据时代更为简单高效的一种新的工作方式。在家工作或者办公室之外的地方工作到底靠不靠谱？作者以自身的工作经验，让我们看到了一个走在时代前端的远程工作世界。或许在不远的将来，人人都将远程工作。
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6671868-1-1.html



2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读：《一个投资家的20年》
规划出来的百万财富

      一个主意或计划改变一个家庭的财务命运，这样的事例早已不是个案。
2011年3月18日
      3月11日，日本9级地震引发海啸致使核电站发生泄漏，据称相当于84000个当年广岛爆炸的原子弹，死亡及失踪者万余人，恐慌至今仍在继续。今年以来，新西兰发生将150年教堂震塌的大地震，澳大利亚发生有记录以来的最大洪水，更不用提当下利比亚的战争或埃及的政局跌宕。总之，世界很动荡，我们每年都会面临“错综复杂的国际国内形势”，无论是人类社会还是大自然。
      记得10年前在北美经历网络泡沫大崩溃时，友人狐疑地问：“都经济危机了，还投什么资啊？”此刻的当下，或许有人心里想2012年地球都没了，投资还有啥用？鉴于地球已不止一次地被预言毁灭后仍然完好，我们需要一如既往地认真工作，原因是
如果届时地球好好的，自己的好日子却没来。
      无论一个家庭或一家企业，在壮大财富的过程中实际上只面临两个问题：融资和投资。前者解决的是没钱时怎么有钱的问题；后者解决的是有了钱怎么变多的问题。融资是基础，投资是关键，这都需要合适的规划。
      曾经提过，很多的投资失败不是失败于投资本身，而是失败于投资规划。时至今日，很多人仍不认为思考、知识、规划、理念等无形资产的重要性。但以有限的经历而言，一个主意或计划改变一个家庭的财务状况、一年时间令财富累积超过数十年之总和，这样的事例早已不是个案。眼见原本同样的家庭，经历同样的社会条件、同样的时间，在一个周期后所形成的差距，乃至这种差距扩大至终生无法弥补，令人感慨的是，这往往源于对于财务的漠视或认真的一念之间。当下正好有个现在进行时的例子。
      一个相识数年的朋友是人到中年的北京人，一家三口，爱人是全职太太，孩子尚幼，全家靠其一人的收入维持。好在身在国企月入8000元人民币，虽然还算稳定，但每月基本所剩无几。住在其兄的房子里已10年，从10年前觉得50万元的房子太贵，住到现在300余万元实在买不起。有幸哥哥事业有成，未曾收过一分钱的房租，看兄弟如此心里不安，决意要将房屋无偿地赠予弟弟一家。
      我与其兄相熟日久，便建议利用这次契机帮助其弟解决长久的财务问题。计划大致如下，如果简单地完成赠予过户，除了多出一套300万元的房屋资产外，弟弟家庭日常的金融状况没有任何改善。鉴于其弟从未买过房，根据当今的政策，可以申请为期20年的银行按揭，而且首套可以享9折利率优惠，估计可以得到200万元的贷款，可以安排部分进行为期3年的投资计划。
      这个过程中除了投资管理者素质外，有两点需注意：一是通常为了避免风险的发生，不主张用负债进行投资，因为合格的投资资金至少有一个要求：短期不用的资金。在这个案例中，通过按揭资金的长期性作为应对。二是日常现金流的安排。由于弟家目前状况已无能力进行月供，所以月供将从按揭本金中支付。为了避免市场日常波动的负面影响，可从本金中一次性提取50万元放入银行月供账户，对应未来3年的月供支出，这样尚能有150万元用于投资。
      如果未来3年的时间能取得100%的投资回报，150万元将升值为300万元。届时可选择用200万元还清银行的全部按揭，此时弟家除了拥有房屋外，比之原本的计划尚多出100万元的金融资产，对于普通人家这几乎是项无法完成的任务。
      弟弟是个老实人，听了这个闻所未闻的方案，震惊于超过其前半生累计财富总和的数字外，额头冒汗、满面惊愕地问：这不是钻空子吗？我无语，晚上迷迷糊糊地翻了本成功学的书，上面赫然写着：抓住机遇！
…...

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
      计划，支出计划，投资计划！之所以可以称之为计划，是因为是自己可以做主的。而收益，回报则并不完全由自己掌握。看到作者上述的建议不由想起当年的机会。今天重新反思，自己也是没有做好准备：
        1.没有贷款投资后的支出计划做为让家人安心的基础，自己都没有想好为了这样的投资需要付出什么样的代价。今天改变了吗?
        2.只想到投资赚钱的美好前景，没有考虑到不赚甚至赔钱情况下需要什么样的办法和措施来保证最基本的生存（进一步的是生活）。也就是安全垫的设计。今天考虑好了吗?
        3.做好以投资的心态来过生活的生存模式的变革：不仅是自己还有自己的亲人。这是最为困难的，因为“枕边人最难劝”
     所以想起来容易，做起来难的关键是没有想深、想透。在计划的过程中反复进行心理演练，直到完全没有系统性的失误，计划才会变成一个可行的方案。当然还需要有一个眼光：洞见未来的眼光。
…...

20180928加入充实计划
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告诉自己：与其焦虑的思考，不如静心的实干！

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充实每一天 发表于 2018-10-14 08:01
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完成了the dictator's handbook 全书的最后部分摘要。
It is an understatement to say that making the world better is a difficult task. If it were not, then it would already have been improved. However, the inherent problem with change is that improving life for one group generally means making at least one other person worse off, and that person is likely to be a leader if change really will solve the people’s problems. If the individual harmed by change is the ruler or the CEO—the same person who has to initiate the changes in the first place—then we can be confident that change is never going to happen.
We would focus on what is rather than what ought to be. We should never let the quest for perfection block the way to lesser improvement. Pursuing the perfect world for everyone is a waste of time and an excuse for not doing the hard work of making the world better for many. It is impossible to make the world great for everyone. A fix is not a fix unless it can actually be done. What can be done must satisfy the needs of everyone required to implement change.
Appeals to ideological principles and rights are generally a cover, J. P. Morgan had it right: There is always some principled way to defend any position, especially one’s own interests. It is to be suspicious of people’s motives.
In devising fixes to the world’s ills, the essential first step is to understand what the protagonists want and how different policies and changes will affect their welfare. A reformer who takes what people say at face value will quickly find their reforms at a dead end.
Everyone has an interest in change, but interchangeables, influential, essentials and leaders don’t often agree on what changes they want. That’s why so much of humanity for so much of human history has been governed by petty despots who steal from the poor to enrich the rich.
The group whose desires are most interesting from the perspective of lasting betterment is the set of essentials. More often than not, they are the people who can make things happen.
Leaders and their essentials share a preference for dependence upon a small coalition, at least so long as the coalition is very small.
At the beginning and the end of an incumbent’s reign the danger of being purged is greatest and so, at these times, coalition members should be most receptive to reform.

What are the lessons for change? First, coalition member should beware of their susceptibility to purges. Remember that it ticks up when there is a new boss, a dying boss, or a bankrupt boss. At such times, the essential group should begin to press for its own expansion to create the incentive to develop public-spirited policies, democracy, and benefits for all. The time for outside intervention to facilitate democratic change or improved corporate responsibility is when a leader has just come to power or when a leader is near the end of his life.
If firms can be made to rely on a bigger coalition they are likely to do a better job of serving the interests of their owners.
When change does happen, it can come from two sources: internal political upheaval or external threat, and between these two, external threat is far less likely to succeed in making many better off at the expense of the few.
People who live with freedom are rarely impoverished and oppressed. Give people the right to say what they want; to write what they want; and to gather to share ideas about what they want, and you are bound to be looking at people whose persons and property are secure and whose lives are content. You are looking at people free to become rich and free to lose their shirts in trying. You are looking at people who are not only materially well off but spiritually and physically, too.
Behind the world of misery and oppression lie governments run by small cliques of essentials who are loyal to leaders who can make them rich. Behind the world of freedom and prosperity lie governments that depend on the backing of a substantial coalition of ordinary people drawn from a large pool of influential, who are in turn draw from a large pool of interchangables.
Yes, we want people to be free and prosperous, but we don’t want them to be free and prosperous enough to threaten our way of life, our interests, and our well-being—and that is as it should be. That too is a rule to rule by for democratic leaders.
“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.” We humbly add that the reason the fault is in ourselves is because we, the people, care so much for ourselves and so little for the world’s underlings.
We have learned that just about all of political life revolves around the size of the selectorate, the influential, and the winning coalition. Expand them all, and the interchangeables no more quickly than the coalition, and everything changes for the better for the vast majority of people.They are liberated to work harder on their own behalf, to become better educated, healthier, wealthier, happier, and free. Their taxes are reduced and their opportunities in life expand dramatically.