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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国券商行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Capping off a year of significant capital markets recovery, overall fourth quarter
capital markets activity decelerated as we progressed into year-end; we expect
December was particularly challenging. Asset prices were mixed after a meaningful
move earlier in 2009, client activity levels declined and debt underwriting retrenched.
On the bright side, equity underwriting activity was better than we anticipated and
more M&A transactions closed than we anticipated. As such, earlier today, we
reduced our broker estimates. Nonetheless, we’re expecting a pretty pickup in
activity levels during the first quarter. Within our coverage universe, other key
issues we’re keeping an eye on include the evolving regulatory landscape,
consolidation of the competitive landscape and expense management (comp,
investment spending).
■
Investment Banking Activity. In the calendar fourth quarter, based on
information from Dealogic, investment grade debt underwriting was down 15%
from third quarter levels while high yield debt underwriting was up 37%. The
volume of equity underwriting was up 43%—related disclosed fees were up 23%
from third quarter totals. Completed M&A was up 48% quarter-to-quarter and
announced M&A was up 49%.
■
Asset Prices and Volatility. In the fourth quarter, equities prices were mostly
higher; fixed income prices were more mixed. Specifically, equities prices were
mostly up on a period-end basis and more so on an average basis, short and
long term interest rates were higher, high grade credit prices were slightly lower
while high yield credit prices were higher, and commodities prices were up.
Residential real estate indices were up while commercial real estate indices were
down. Volatility across most asset classes was down to end the year.
■
Trading Volumes. In the fourth quarter, global exchange volumes were fairly
resilient. Cash equity volumes retrenched while cash fixed income volumes were
lower. With respect to derivatives volumes, commodities/energy and FX volumes
continued to be a bright spot; interest rate volumes also exhibited continued
signs of improvement.
■
Retail Brokerage and Fund Flows. Retail brokerage trends were mixed in the
fourth quarter. Client asset inflows remained stable-to-modestly negative for the
traditional brokerage houses but positive for the discount/online channels.
Trading activity began to pull back driven in part by seasonality and
normalization in equity market volatility. With respect to fund flows, fixed income
and equity funds experienced net inflows, money market funds had net outflows.
■
The Stocks. Within our capital markets coverage universe (i.e., brokerage and
advisory firms, discount retail brokers, securities processors, financial exchanges
and market structure firms), our favorite names include Goldman Sachs, Morgan
Stanley (upgraded to Outperform earlier today), Blackstone, State Street, CME
Group and Charles Schwab.
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