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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国消费品行业前景展望
【作者】：Jefferies证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
Executive Summary
With the start of a new investment year, we thought it would be timely to present our 2010 outlook for the
Specialty Retail industry. In this edition we discuss current macro trends, industry fundamentals, valuation
characteristics and our current stock recommendations.
In a nutshell, we continue to have a positive stance on the Specialty Retail sector entering 2010 as we see
tailwinds for the group in the first half of the year. However, some headwinds will likely form in the second half
which causes our investment philosophy to change.
Beginning in Spring 2009 we turned bullish on our industry and our investment call at that time was essentially
to “buy everything.” However, with the economic backdrop improving but still fragile, and the consumer
repairing its balance sheet while still having trouble with joblessness and wage growth, we believe the “easy”
money has been made in our group and particularly in the “turnaround” stocks. As a result, we now
recommend a more selective investment strategy focused on absolute growth and luxury stocks while deemphasizing
turnarounds and value-oriented retailers.
Our call around these themes is pretty simple. We like growth names because the specialty retail industry is
mature and growth is scarce. We think growth stocks took a back seat to turnarounds in 2009 and we now see
that absolute and relative performance changing in 2010. In addition, while the value oriented retailers saw
significant market share gains in 2009, positive traffic, massive upward EPS revisions, and strong stock
performance, we think this trade is peaking. Consumer spending trends will begin to return to more “normal”
behavior, and while consumers may remain value-bent, the incremental fundamental momentum for this sector
is waning. In contrast we see nascent signs of a luxury spending recovery which should continue to accelerate.
In an effort to capture our changed investment strategy we are making a number of ratings changes. To
support our call to buy growth stocks we are upgrading ULTA to Buy. Our positive luxury view is exhibited with
our upgrade of TIF to Buy. Seeing most of the turnarounds stocks having earnings upside nearly “priced in”
we are downgrading AEO, CHS, GPS to Hold, as well as downgrading ANN to Underperform. Finally, while
we believe the off-price retailers are great companies, we think the value trade has peaked and we are
downgrading both ROST and TJX to Underperform. Our buy ratings today = ANF, COH, FOSL, GES, TIF,
ULTA, URBN, ZUMZ.
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