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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月全球钻石行业前景展望
【作者】：CORMARK证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
Unless otherwise denoted, all figures shown in C$
We are using C$0.90 conversion rate
Diamond prices peaked in August 2008 only to take a significant hit as a
result of the credit crisis and subsequent recession. Although rough diamond
prices have experienced some recovery, neither rough nor polished diamond
prices have enjoyed the same recent rises as other precious metals.
Diamond sales are driven by consumer spending, which remains weak,
particularly in the United States where the bulk of diamond jewelry is sold.
However, India and China are growing consumers of precious metals and
minerals and are expected to drive demand going forward.
Production of rough diamonds remains flat as most of the large, aging mines
in Russia, Africa and Canada move to lower-tonnage underground
operations. As a result, diamond production past 2010 should continue to be
flat or even slightly declining. By 2012, demand should outstrip supply
pushing the price of rough and polished prices higher, particularly at the high
end. At present, we are taking a conservative view and project rough
diamond prices will remain flat through 2011 followed by 3% growth annually
for five years thereafter as the supply gap becomes more noticeable.
In this report, we outline the complexities of the diamond market, the supplydemand
factors that support higher prices in the future and highlight three
names in the diamond space that have potential to feed into this pending
supply crunch. For the purposes of this report, we have focused on
advanced diamond developers listed on the TSX as the developers can offer
a better risk reward ratio as they have exposure to diamond prices,
development milestones and potential future cash flow.
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