> eq_gclock<-arima(gclock,order=c(2,1,0))
> eq_gclock
Call:
arima(x = gclock, order = c(2, 1, 0))
Coefficients:
ar1 ar2
0.3428 0.2975
s.e. 0.1066 0.1126
sigma^2 estimated as 1.602e-22: log likelihood = 1396.53, aic = -2787.06
> tsdiag(eq_gclock)
> resid=residuals(eq_gclock)
> Box.test(resid,lag=10,type="Ljung-Box",fitdf=2)
Box-Ljung test
data: resid
X-squared = 0.0022396, df = 8, p-value = 1
> predict(eq_gclock,n.ahead=5)
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 61
End = 65
Frequency = 1
[1] 4.664359e-05 4.664359e-05 4.664359e-05 4.664359e-05 4.664359e-05
$se
Time Series:
Start = 61
End = 65
Frequency = 1
[1] 1.265646e-11 2.119008e-11 3.072383e-11 3.982425e-11 4.865927e-11
请问专家,我使用R语言进行预测的这个程序,哪方面存在错误吗?为何我预测的5个值或者更多的值,结果都是相同的,这样预测还有效果吗。我应该怎么改正啊,比较着急啊,万分感谢大家!


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