20190130【充实计划】第967期

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间99小时

Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(AnuragSharma)

https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 291-297)

Conclusion

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录

In investment research, there’s so muchinformation to process and interpret that anybody can easily drown in it. Numerousmandatory filings, marketing materials, third-party reports and commentaries,and the unending streams of opinions that public companies invite all have thecapacity to overwhelm the senses. The challenge for investors is to cut throughthe noise obfuscating the nuggets of data that may be critical to developing akeen understanding of an investment thesis. Sometimes, there are no nuggets ofdata at all, only a vast jumble of plausible but confusing claims andcounterclaims. The overabundance of information is not the only problem,however; acute problems arise from our emotional and psychological vulnerabilities.So, what can we do to sort through and make meaning from the vast troves ofinformation, when emotional and psychological factors can so impede trueunderstanding? How do we get to the nub of the persistent sales pitches thatfuel hopes and fears, and more? How, in short, do we invest sanely in theinsane world of investing and do so with such a defective computing apparatusas that bestowed on us by eons of biological evolution? Impossible thoughinvesting seems, there are things that we as investors can do to improve ourodds of success. Paramount for investing successfully, as I have argued in thisbook, is a cautious temperament and a well-grounded approach that helpsstabilize emotions, encourages focus on relevant facts, and facilitates carefulanalysis. Central to this approach is posing the investor as a sense-maker inan incredibly complex world of fact and fiction, with the distinction betweenthe two not always clear. Let’s review the keys to our approach. The first stepin becoming a wise investor is to define investing as a problem of choice asopposed to defining it as a problem of chance. Putting choice at the center ofinvesting tempers the propensity to gamble and to take unnecessary chances inthe hope that luck might shine our way. Even though the markets areunpredictable and prices can shift randomly in the short run, gambling ininvesting is a fool’s errand, as it invites reckless behavior that dissipatesboth energy and capital. Instead, investors must endeavor to deliberatelydeploy capital in sound businesses and do so on economically favorable termssuch that the preservation of capital remains paramount as an objective. Thesecond step in learning to invest wisely is to understand that good choices donot always mean good results. Because the strongest emotions of the momentdrive prices in the short run, good analysis does not guarantee success, nordoes poor analysis (or no analysis at all) guarantee failure in the near term.

Unprepared investors are highly vulnerable tobeing whiplashed by unpredictable price swings, entering the markets withoptimism and hope, but then quickly abandoning their positions when the mooddarkens and prices suddenly plummet. The absence of analysis almost inevitablyleads to wrong choices. Hence, thoughtful and thorough analysis is of utmostimportant for investing wisely. The third step in becoming a wise investor isto understand that, in many ways, investing is a “head game,” in the sense thatit requires considerable judgments about where to invest and when and when to stayput and how to fold. It also requires being able to see deceptions andself-deceptions that could trap invested capital. Of course, analytical skillsare critical to making such judgments; but success in investing comes fromstabilizing the mind so that we may be able to grasp the essence of things anddifferentiate true opportunity from the many illusions out there. Doing sorequires that investors invest first in selfreflection— in gaining knowledgeabout how our own minds work, how we think, how we process information, and howour moods and emotions influence the choices we make. That is, success ininvesting requires that we cultivate a capacity for self-awareness andself-reflection, for metacognition—thinking about thinking—and forunderstanding how we know what we know so that we may be able to deliberatelyregulate our own learning process. The importance of this kind ofself-awareness cannot be overstated. We are usually under the sway of a greatmany influences of which we are only dimly aware. The larger environment ofhope and fear powerfully affects how we evaluate opportunities and, absentself-awareness, can easily lead us into stunningly poor choices. Rising marketscreate optimism, for instance, and encourage hopeful valuations; fallingmarkets create pessimism, which usually results in fearful valuations.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想

Constructing a robust portfolio is an integralto investing wisely. No matter how thorough the analysis of companies andsecurities, every investment thesis will suffer from unknowns and unknowables, aswell as factors that can neither be controlled nor anticipated by even the bestanalysts. Irreducible uncertainties remain no matter what, and newuncertainties emerge as the world changes. Investors can mitigate the adverseeffects of such irreducible uncertainties by constructing diversifiedportfolios. Grouping carefully selected stocks into a well-conceived portfoliois, therefore, the final step in investing wisely. Grouping companies that areuncorrelated or only partially correlated on economic fundamentals can markedlyreduce the potential adverse effects of irreducible uncertainties and unknownrisks. But this does not mean that investors should ignore the particulars andwealth-creating machinery of each company in their portfolio.

We need to beware to lose the trees for theforest. Trying to at once grasp the particulars of too many companies is likelyto make information overload a problem and undermine the ability to construct arobust portfolio. Avoiding this problem is paramount; investors must retain focuson deeply understanding each individual company in the portfolio. The final keyto investing wisely is, therefore, to form portfolios with only a handful ofcore holdings, each carefully selected using a well-constructed investmentthesis that has survived serious attempts at refutation and disconfirmation.

Investors need to consider therefutation and disconfirmation framework as resilient but malleable, andsubject to modification. Not only should we see the data in terms of the framework,we should also put the framework itself to the test. This dialectic between theframework and the data, the back and forth between the two, is the essentialway for us to make sense of the world with a truly open mind. To the extentthat the framework is helpful and leads to good choices, it makes sense tocontinue refining it to one’s personal style. When it begins to lead us intodark alleys and dead ends, it’s time to rethink or even abandon it altogether.Ultimately, investors must exercise thoughtful choice at every turn.

Refutationand disconfirmation, although encourages analysis and emphases caution, arereally about reinforcing, or acquiring and cultivating, the correct temperamentfor investing cautiously and wisely with a medium- to long-term investmenthorizon. Independence of thought, diligence, emotional stability, caution, andpatience are the hallmarks of a good temperament for investing wisely. Absentthese traits, it is difficult to apply the approach to investing that we have discussed.Without these, any manner of mishaps or perturbation in the larger environmentcan distract investors from the mental discipline required for sustainedsuccess; it can induce blind imitation or reckless gambling—and quickly undoyears of painstaking work that may have gone into building one or more coreportfolios. Hence, cultivating the correct temperament is essential forlearning to be a wise investor. Certainly, the traits that make up a completevalue investor are a tall order for most of us humans. Given our many emotionaland psychological vulnerabilities, we all fall short one way or the other mostof the time, especially when engaged in as complex an endeavor as investing. Yet,the ideal temperament and its supporting traits are something to strive for,not only so we may become better investors but so that we may continue strivingto become better people who make good choices.

今天阅读1小时，持续每天阅读累计110小时。

昨天阅读3小时，累计阅读98小时

iPhone 遇阻，苹果求变

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_J8VWk3exeZAewUJDTdPLQ

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1665小时。
学习和投资心得：
股票的估值：股市中的贵与贱的问题，恒瑞医药和宁德时代的例子，恒瑞医药50倍市盈率估值太高了，所以一定会跌，宁德时代也50倍的市盈率，太贵了，泡沫太大了。苹果产业链的那些股票（瑞声科技舜宇光学歌尔股份丘钛科技）当初明显就是看着太贵了，涨太多了，泡沫太大了。行业和个股的贵与贱远远不是PEPB那么简单（PEPB对于整体市场估值更有参考价值些），追捧这些热门股的人也远没有我们想象的那么蠢。带量集采之前医药股的估值贵么？是不便宜，但远谈不上泡沫。在以前的仿制药生意模式下，研发费用其实不是费用（卖老药是不需要研发的），研发费用是投资（投新项目），所以你把研发费用加回利润里，再加上仿制药以前那样的一种持续增长的生意模式，恒瑞医药50倍的市盈率很贵么？不贵啊，之所以跌，不是因为它50倍市盈率，是由于带量集采，之前的生意逻辑可能会发生根本的变化，如果明年带量集采取消了，它照样是50倍的市盈率。宁德时代，如果在未来爆发式增长的电动车行业的利润都主要集中在了电池环节，而宁德时代又能维持现在的这样一个竞争地位，50倍的市盈率，贵么？反过来说，银行股5倍市盈率、0.7倍的PB是不是一定就很便宜？1.4倍PB的招商银行就一定比其它0.7倍PB的银行贵？查理芒格说过一句话，我理解的大致意思是：只有我们自己比最能反驳我们观点的人都更能反驳我们自己的观点时，我们才配拥有这个观点。所以，不管熊市牛市中，我们咋看到一个表面不合理的东东，尽可能从那些与我们观点相反的角度去考虑考虑，或许会有些帮助。不是说我们就得认同市场永远是对的，接受市场的观点，但是我们也要承认，正常情况下，市场的有效性远远超出我们的想象，我们得先通过深入的研究知道它哪里有可能是错的，多数时候，对于一个参与者众多的行业或者股票上，这种错误都不可能是PEPB这种错误。所以，我觉得我们普通人还是先要努力去理解市场，而不是先入为主地认为市场就是错的，如果连市场都没理解，何谈击败市场，获取超越市场的收益？这种贵和贱，只有我们深入理解之后才能评判，才能估值，不是简单地依据PBPE就能看出来的。所以能力圈很重要，安全边际很重要，安全边际也不能通过表面的PEPB来获得。没有深入的理解生意，没法谈贵贱的。香港还有一只1.4倍PE的股票易大宗(01733)，而且它赚的钱不一定就是假钱，大家感兴趣可以研究下。

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昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读1139小时。

昨日阅读时间1小时，总阅读时间390小时