20190131【充实计划】第968期

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读20小时。
“如果有一天所有人一觉醒来都成了作家的话，那么普遍失聪、普遍不理解的时代就降临了”
““倘有别的人存在，我们自己还存在吗””
“每个人你都无法忍受自己迟早会消亡，消亡到一个冷漠的世界里，默默无闻，无声无臭。因此，只要还来得及，他就要把自己变成由词语组成的他自己的世界。”
                                                     ——摘自《笑忘录》

昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间101小时
Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 13-21)
Introduction

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
You would think that humankind would learn from past bubbles, but the creation of bubbles never stopped. There are four recurring types of participants during the expansion phase of bubbles:
1. The average folks: These are the people who are excited about the new idea and are also relatively new to the market. They think they are onto something and because their friends and neighbors are getting rich, they, too, should jump in. I was one of them. So was Sir Isaac Newton. Widely recognized as the smartest person alive during his time, Newton was just an average guy when it came to the stock market.
2. The smart ones: These are the people who recognize that something is wrong, yet think they can figure out when the bubble will burst—they will ride all the way to the peak, but get out before everyone else. As Warren Buffett joked in his 2007 shareholder letter, after the burst of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, Silicon Valley had a popular bumper sticker that read: Please, God, Just One More Bubble. Before long, they got one. This time in housing, and we all know how that ended.
3. The short sellers: These are the people who recognize that things are wrong and that what is happening is not sustainable. Stocks are overpriced. So they short the stocks by borrowing the shares and selling them, hoping to buy the shares back at a much lower price or not to buy back at all if the company goes bankrupt. But then their pain begins. The stocks continue to go up and short sellers are losing more and more money. Just as economist John Keynes pointedout, “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” This happened to one of the most celebrated investors, George Soros, the man who broke the Bank of England. During the beginning of 1999, Soros’s fund was betting big against Internet stocks. He saw the bubble taking shape and knew that the Internet craze would end badly. But as the craze kept gathering force, his fund lost 20 percent by the middle of 1999. Though he knew that the Internet bubble would burst, he bought the borrowed shares back and closed his short positions. That wasn’t enough. Under performance pressure, he turned against what he knew—which was the right thing to do—and became the next type of bubble participant: the forced buyer.
4. The forced buyers: These are the professional investors who are forced to participate in a bubble, mostly under pressure to deliver short-term gains. Not getting involved in the Next Big Thing would make them look outdated, and they face losing jobs or clients. After closing his short positions in Internet stocks, and feeling he couldn’t buy those stocks himself, George Soros hired someone to do it for him. His portfolio was then filled with the Internet stocks he hated. Not only that, but the new guy was now selling short the old-economy stocks. It worked. By the end of 1999, Soros saw his fund come all the way back to finish 1999 up 35 percent. The problem was that in another few months, Soros’s prediction of the burst of the Internet bubble came true, and he found himself turned in the wrong direction again.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Successful investing is about knowledge and hard work. It is a lifelong learning process—there is no other secret. Only through learning that we can build confidence in your investment decision making. Knowledge and confidence help us to think rationally and independently, especially during market panics and euphoria—when rational and independent thinking is most needed. If you learn more, you will get better.

How to make profit in stock investing, mainly are:
1)        finding the companies that may generate higher returns with smaller risk.
2)        deals with how to evaluate these companies, how to find possible problems with them
3)        how to avoid mistakes
4)        doing correct stock valuations and  market valuations, finding the undervalued ones and  calculate potential returns.
It is a job many people may know but not doing it persistently.

阅读1小时，累计222小时

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读33小时。继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》里面好玩的一段：
人性自私，同时具有同情心和爱心
我们要先弄清楚《国富论》和《道德情操论》的出版顺序。事实上，斯密首先在1759年出版了《道德情操论》，隔了17年，也就是在1776年才出版了《国富论》。《道德情操论》包含了斯密的整个理论框架，而《国富论》只是其中的一部分，尽管《国富论》篇幅要更长，也更出名。
斯密的第一个观点是：人是自私的，那些完全不自私的人，连自己都不爱的人，自暴自弃的人，在社会上是不会受到尊重的。
斯密紧接着说了第二个观点：人不仅仅是自私的，同时还具有同情心，也就是有一种设身处地为他人着想的能力。人们把自己认为的别人是否幸福，当作自己是否幸福的一部分：你幸福，我幸福；你痛苦，我也感到痛苦。这是一种天生的能力，叫“同情心”，人人都有。人有同情心，也就是有爱心。
人的爱心有限，随着距离拉远而减弱
斯密的第三个观点是：“人的同情心是随着人与人之间距离的拉远而急速减弱的。”
如果我们查看自己的手机通讯录，里面少则上百人，多则数千人。但里面只有很少的人，是真正爱我们，能够随时倾听我们的诉说，在我们危难时奋不顾身来帮助我们的。人们只能爱很少的几个人，爱心没办法扩展到小圈子以外的范围。
我的领悟：
1、人性是个复杂的东西，我们不能简单概括为好或坏。好或坏要看其对应的角色是什么；
2、人虽然是自私的，但是又富有同情心，这个同情心的范围有限，所以，我们再去面对一个人的时候，可以考虑，是否进入了他同情心的范围；
3、关系亲近的人，做生意都有人情的成分，而陌生人之间的生意，要看市场协调。

猪年春运，抢票软件、黄牛党为何纷纷失灵

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bJpW_BmxRDNxHRRmPF6Gog

扎克伯格发帖阐述今年四大任务 直言要解决社会舆论问题

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UauBZKVSTamPBv5LvBWpOw

解剖美团外卖

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QcoBL8Zzh1hnNrgbQyzYEA

昨日阅读一小时，stumble on happiness,59%->61%,累积阅读时间13小时

阿里没有“失速”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fYuo726hXldX5B1ZxdmZtQ

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读382小时。