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【出版时间及名称】：2010年亚洲交通运输行业前景展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
2010 – a year of earnings recovery: Stronger global GDP growth and
leading indicators, such as the US ISM index (usually leads Asian exports by
six months), suggest a V-shaped demand recovery in 2010. We expect the
airline, shipping, and port operators to benefit from improving volumes and
unit prices this year. That said, seasonal factors, supply development and
embedded market expectations will determine the winners as well as the
losers, and the timing to get in and out of these sectors and stocks.
■ What we like: 1Q10 appears to be a sweet spot for airlines, given the
positive momentum in demand recovery, bottoming of yields and
manageable supply. For container shipping, there are better opportunities in
1H10, as the industry will benefit from improving rates and demand before
idle capacity kicks in when rates return to the breakeven level by 2H10.
■ Where we are cautious: Chinese port 1H10 demand visibility improves.
They stand to benefit from a container demand recovery, but valuations are
not as attractive. For bulk shipping, the BDI will remain volatile, but we think
the overall trend is down on supply pressure, even considering delays and
cancellations, as bulk ships are profitable to operate now.
■ What to watch: Dry bulk – iron ore price negotiations, price differential
between China’s domestic and international iron ore and coal prices, and
weather disruptions; Container – transpacific rate negotiations and
movement of idle fleet; Ports – volumes, ASP development and capacity
growth; Airlines – demand, yield recovery and fuel prices.
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