20190312【充实计划】第1006期

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2019.3.12
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关键沟通术：如何营造无往不利的事业与人生

第2章　掌握关键对话
当我们面对重要问题保持沉默时，我们的生活便开始上演悲剧了。

——马丁·路德·金

对话

在和他人展开充满风险、富有争议和令人情绪激动的对话时，对话高手总是能找到某种
方式，公开传达各种相关信息（包括自己和他人的信息）。

这就是秘诀所在，成功的对话关键在于相关信息的自由交流，即双方愿意公开坦诚地表
达自己的看法，分享自己的感受，说出自己的猜测。即使要表达的观点是充满争议或不受欢
迎的，他们仍愿意且能够积极和对方分享。经过对沟通高手的调查，我们发现他们无一例外
都是这样做的，而且这种方式每时每刻都在他们的日常生活中重复着。

这种独特的能力就是我们所说的对话。
对话指两人或多人之间观点的自由交流。

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-3-12 05:59
该主题为【学道会】活动，点击了解详情

【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

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单词复习<br>
aggregate <br>
friction <br>
frangile <br>
gigantic <br>
hamper <br>
hasty<br>
imperative <br>
瘦身健体12460步

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    人在自然面前到底是什么？对无限而言就是虚空，对虚空而言就是全体，他是无限和全体之间的一个中间项。 他距离理解这两个极端都无穷远，对他来说，事物的起源和结尾都藏在一个绝对无法看穿的秘密之中，他既看不到他从中而来的那个虚无，也看不到他深陷其中的那个无限。
    人处在不明白事物的起始也不明白事物的归宿的永恒绝望中，唯一可做的只能是研究可见的那部分中间事物。万物生自虚无而趋向无穷，谁能领会这神奇的过程？这些奇迹的创造者会理解这过程，任何他人都无法做到。
——帕斯卡. 人是一根会思考的芦苇

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There are two ways to make citizens safe from large predators, say, big powerful corporations. The first one is to enact regulations—but these, aside from restricting individual freedoms, lead to another predation, this time by the state, its agents, and their cronies. More critically, people with good lawyers can game regulations (or, as we will see, make it known that they hire former regulators, and overpay for them, which signals a prospective bribe to those currently in office). And of course regulations, once in, stay in, and even when they are proven absurd, politicians are afraid of repealing them, under pressure from those benefiting from them. Given that regulations are additive, we soon end up tangled in complicated rules that choke enterprise. They also choke life.
For there are always parasites benefiting from regulation, situations where the businessperson uses government to derive profits, often through protective regulations and franchises. The mechanism is called regulatory recapture, as it cancels the effect of what a regulation was meant to do.
The other solution is to put skin in the game in transactions, in the form of legal liability, and the possibility of an efficient lawsuit. The Anglo-Saxon world has traditionally had a predilection for the legal approach instead of the regulatory one: if you harm me, I can sue you. This has led to the very sophisticated, adaptive, and balanced common law, built bottom-up, via trial and error. When people transact, they almost always prefer to agree (as part of the contract) on a Commonwealth (or formerly British-ruled) venue as a forum in the event of a dispute: Hong Kong and Singapore are the favorites in Asia, London and New York in the West. Common law is about the spirit while regulation, owing to its rigidity, is all about the letter.
If a big corporation pollutes your neighborhood, you can get together with your neighbors and sue the hell out of it. Some greedy lawyer will have the paperwork ready. The enemies of the corporation will be glad to help. And the potential costs of the settlement would be enough of a deterrent for the corporation to behave.
This doesn’t mean one should never regulate at all. Some systemic effects may require regulation (say hidden tail risks of environmental ruins that show up too late). If you can’t effectively sue, regulate.*5
Now, even if regulations had a small net payoff for society, I would still prefer to be as free as possible, but assume my civil responsibility, face my fate, and pay the penalty if I harm others. This attitude is called deontic libertarianism (deontic comes from “duties”): by regulating you are robbing people of freedom. Some of us believe that freedom is one’s first most essential good. This includes the freedom to make mistakes (those that harm only you); it is sacred to the point that it must never be traded against economic or other benefits.

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学习和投资心得：
投资的风控和仓位及标的选择：首先，需要知道股票基本面的情况，简单的诸如行业，财务，以及简单的主营构成，估值等；其次，要明确买入的逻辑，看点，而且最好是想明白影响股价的核心因素在什么地方。大的方向无外乎PE跟EPS，股价未来的上涨是靠估值驱动，还是靠业绩驱动，还是二者同时驱动；再次，要明确风险在什么地方，做到心中有数，没有风险的股票是不存在的，有些只是比较小而已，自己能够承受多少的损失，评估如果发生风险的话，差，更差，最差的情况如何，做一个三档左右的分类；最后根据设定的情况来确定自己的目标点位，考虑风险收益比，当然有时候会超出我们的预期情况。这个时候可能就需要我们设定好止损位，止盈位，尤其是止损位置比较重要。我的经验一般是设置2个，一个高一点，一个低一点，较低的作为强制止损点，较高的作为减仓点（一般是一半），不给自己留出后路，如果真的错了，可以减少很大一部分损失，也能避免深度被套。止盈位可以按照直接的目标位，或者先对乐观，以及最乐观的情况去考虑，也可以设置2个，第一个低一些，到了减半，第二个高一些，到了全出。之所以设置2个或者更多的止盈止损位，就是要让自己考虑，可能出现的不同情况，一般的情况是怎么，好的，更好，差的，更差的情况该如何的去除了，强迫自己用动态眼光，更宽阔的思路来考虑问题。3. 资产配置的风控资产配置的风控是说整个资产池应该买多少股票，是1个还是100个，是All in赌一把还是稳健一点慢慢的来，也就是说要考虑单只股票的仓位。 我的经验是每只股票的持仓最多配置3到4成，一般情况下配置1到2成，非常看好的才能重仓，但是最多也不会超过4成，这就很大程度上避免了出现重仓被套的情况。 有时候可能会做一些热点，或者短线，但是这样的个股往往是比较活跃的，这样的个股通常只需要配置0.5到1成的仓位。一般情况下持有个股的数量不会超过8个，最大的仓位不会超过8成（当然要避免单一子行业过多或者仓位太重，一般是一个行业不超5成），重仓单只个股不超过4成，通常情况下会维持在4-5只左右个股，2-3只仓位相对重一些做，另外的1-2只仓位相对较轻，这样可以留出做T的空间跟机会，也可以机动的管理仓位，使得仓位可以动态的调节。