2010年南美洲证券市场投资策略

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年南美洲证券市场投资策略
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：

S A Strategy
Zero Upside Likely for SA
Equity Market in 2010; Risk of
R83bnTax Shortfall
Premium valuation outweighs strong earnings
growth to drive 0% forecast return for ALSI: We
believe the stretched nature of the Trailing PE at 17.5x
indicates equity returns should be limited to 0% for 2010
(ALSI index target), despite the 30% potential growth in
profit (MSCI forward earnings in ZAR). Furthermore, we
foresee a larger than expected tax shortfall of R83bn. If
individual taxes have to increase, this may put pressure
on accommodation and vehicles spending.
We are underweight South Africa in an EM context,
as we forecast a 16% return for MSCI EM (US$) against
-16% for SA (0% in ZAR terms). We therefore forecast
c30% underperformance of the ALSI to MSCI EM. This
would be a repeat of1996 (-28%), with roughly similar
shortfalls in 1999, 2001 and 2007. A key influence is our
forecast of a weak ZAR, partly driven by Morgan
Stanley’s global call for US$ strengthening.
We introduce our model portfolio (SWIX benchmark),
which is OW Banks, Telcos and Oils. Four stocks
account for 49% of the portfolio – MTN, Sasol, Standard
Bank and Implats. Key portfolio underweights are Anglo,
SABMiller, Angloplats, Richemont and Naspers.
Potential tax revenue shortfall: We see an R83bn tax
shortfall this year (govt. expects R70bn, MS economists
forecast R59bn), which risks causing higher tax rates for
higher earners (we think the marginal rate could go from
40% to 45%). Providing further support to this concern is
the MS forecast that public sector borrowing will rise to
11.8% of GDP.
What’s next: Tax receipts are released monthly, which
will provide support (or not) for our view. Our expectation
of higher taxes is non-consensus, and may depend on
government willingness to rely on later GDP growth to
increase tax revenues over time, without a tax increase.

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关键词：市场投资 证券市场 投资策略 南美洲 expectation 投资 证券 南美洲