2009年土耳其证券市场投资策略

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TURKISH 2009 EQUITY STRATEGY
MARKETS A-MAZE...
• We expect the ISE to continue to mirror the behavior of developed markets,
but we expect to see more differentiation among the stock performances
during 2009.
• We expect the market to be volatile during the year and it may hit new lows,
but percentage-wise we do not anticipate the market to repeat the massive
falls seen in 2008. The IMF agreement may provide some short term relief
for the markets, but depressive corporate news and earnings
announcements during the first half may do little to support the equity market.
• After a very respectable set of earnings reported in 9M08, we expect a sharp
60% y/y contraction in the 4Q08 results, which are estimated to take the
annual earnings growth down to –1%. For 2009, we conducted our earnings
estimates on two different sets of macro-economic assumptions. Our base
case estimates imply a 6% contraction in 2009 earnings, while our bearish
scenario refers to a contraction of 25%. The ISE trades at 6.4x PE ratio with
our 2009E earnings in the base case scenario, while our bearish scenario
refers to a market PE of 8x for 2009.
• Turkey’s leverage on both a corporate and individual level is manageable.
However, Turkey needs fresh funding to finance its growth, which will be the
main challenge throughout 2009. We are not concerned about defaults on
top ISE companies due to high leverages or liquidity issues, although some
will need to inject cash capital or postpone large scale expansion plans.
However, external borrowing has played a pivotal role in the corporate
growth of the last 5 years.
• The market will remain vulnerable to outflows throughout 2009, both from
financial markets and through corporate debt re-payments which may lead to
a sharper than expected deterioration in asset quality and earnings. Higher
NPLs, limited wholesale funding and lower growth are the main risks facing
the banking sector. Tight financial conditions, a lower top line, pressure on
margins and the potential for FX losses are common risks facing nonfinancials.

Overview 1
Top Recommendations 17
Akenerji 18
Alarko Holding 19
Anadolu Hayat 20
Aygaz 21
BIM 23
Garanti Bank 25
Isbank 27
Pinar Et 29
Turkish Airlines 31
Turk Telekom 33
Long Term Picks 35
Akcansa 36
Dogus Otomotiv 38
Enka Insaat 40
Hurriyet 41
Tofas Otomobil 42
Sectors 44
Automotive 45
Banking 49
Beverage 60
Cement 64
Conglomerates 69
Consumer Durables 76
Energy & Oil 80
Food 86
Glass 89
Healthcare &Pharmaceutical 93
Insurance 96
Logistic 100
Media 102
Real Estate 106
Retail 108
Iron & Steel 111
Telecom 114
Tourism 117
Appendix 121

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2009年土耳其证券市场投资策略
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