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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国汽车行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Capacity concerns overplayed; fundamentals intact. We think that
market concerns over potential industry overcapacity are overdone, as we
estimate demand would need to fall to 5% for utilisation to be affected
significantly, which is unlikely, in our view. Based on our bottom-up analysis
of 20 major automakers’ expansion plans, we estimate 2.7-3.5 mn additional
units of industry capacity from 2010-12. Assuming 13.8% and 10% auto
demand growth for 2010 and 2011-12, respectively, utilisation is likely to
remain optimal at 84-86%. With a positive correlation between share prices
and utilisation, we think the recent share price pullback offers a good entry
opportunity to growth and quality stocks.
■
Seasonality weakness may surprise on the upside, with competition
intensifying in the small car segment. Low PV inventory and an order
backlog are supportive of auto prices, suggesting 1Q10 sales could surprise
on the upside. With an increasing number of first-time buyers with lower
budgets, market competition is intensifying in the small car segment. Dealer
distribution, product variety, branding and quality are keys to differentiation.
■
Prefer PV to CV and growth plays. With strong branding, less dependence
on tax subsidy and attractive valuations, Dongfeng is our top pick
(OUTPERFORM). We like Geely’s (OUTPERFORM) improving exports and
product mix. BYD (OUTPERFORM) has a very strong dealer network in the
growth regions and a planned A-share IPO could provide share price
support. Denway is rated NEUTRAL, based on its muted growth, but
proposed privatisation is a potential catalyst. We prefer Weichai (NEUTRAL)
to Sinotruk (UNDERPERFORM), with potentially stronger property
investment growth driving higher sales of construction machinery offsetting
possible weakness in heavy truck sales.
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