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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月香港房地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
SHKP looks mispriced; asset prices to remain high
in 2010: We believe asset prices in HK will remain at
historically high levels, but SHKP is trading at a 25%
discount to forward NAV, 1 SD below its historical
average. The valuation implies an imminent downcycle
in asset prices in the next 12 months. We think this is an
unlikely scenario. Every positive turn of the economic
cycle in the past, and re-emergence of inflation, has
resulted in sustained positive movement in property
prices. A historically low base for mortgage rates and
firming labor market shield affordability. Investors should
seize this opportunity to own this flagship developer; we
expect 46% upside to our PT of HK$152.
Positive on Developers, but downgrade Property
Investors from Attractive to In-Line: We have strong
conviction that the de-linkage in developers’ stock prices
and asset prices will narrow. Near-term catalyst for the
group would be large-scale project launches in 1Q10
driving positive news flow, amid a prominent backdrop of
economic recovery. Property Investors have largely
priced in the office recovery; hence, we downgrade our
view on the industry from Attractive to In-Line.
Base-case growth projections supported by
positive fundamental outlook: The market’s focus has
moved from liquidity to prospects of recovery in
economies, including HK. We now derive our PTs from
our revised base case; previously, they were based on
our bull case. Our Property Price Predictor points to a
10% increase in residential prices and a 5% rise in office
prices by end-2010. This base-case scenario is
supported by: 1) global economic recovery; 2) relative
liquidity and low mortgage rates; and 3) no change in
high land price policy, i.e., supply remains low.
SHKP is our top pick… but we also maintain OW calls
on Henderson, Kerry, Sino and Hysan. We remain UW
on HLP because of demanding valuation. We
downgraded the office proxy, HK Land, to EW in
December 2009. The key risk to our call is a destructive
policy exit, leading to a double-dip macro scenario.
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