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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月香港银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment Summary ...............................................................3
Valuation summary......................................................................................................3
Expectation of rate hikes is just as important as the actual rate hikes..........................4
Current capital calculations are already stringent ........................................................5
Property measures are likely moderate ........................................................................5
Full deposit guarantee will expire this year .................................................................5
Share price performance .........................................................6
China – The main driver in 2010............................................10
Volume growth in times of monetary tightening .......................................................10
Volume growth: CEPA gives HK banks a head start.................................................10
Rmb business remains a long-term catalyst ...............................................................11
Rmb bond issuance an essential part of Rmb business ..............................................13
Rate hike – Expectation matters ...........................................14
When will rate sentiment turn? ..................................................................................14
Implication of rate hike to Hong Kong banks............................................................15
Risk to our call...........................................................................................................16
M&A hopes are still high........................................................17
Who’s shopping? .......................................................................................................17
Potential candidates ...................................................................................................18
Lehman minibonds.................................................................20
Deposit guarantee ..................................................................21
Financial analysis...................................................................22
Net interest margin.....................................................................................................22
Loan growth...............................................................................................................23
Fees income ...............................................................................................................24
Trading income ..........................................................................................................24
Credit quality continues to improve...........................................................................25
Capital remains healthy..............................................................................................26
Earnings preview for FY09 ....................................................26
Appendix – Our HK property team remains bullish.............27
Companies..............................................................................29
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