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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月香港银行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：64
【目录或简介】：
Excess liquidity surges on capital
inflows and Hong Kong banks retreating
from overseas interbank markets
Rebounding asset growth and widening
spreads in HK/China too sluggish to
combat this excess liquidity
BOC(HK) top pick; upgrade DSF to
OW(V) and BEA and WHB to N(V)
‘West’-driven excess liquidity a threat to ROA recovery.
Liquidity has surged in Hong Kong since 2H08. HK banks
have poured more than HKD640bn into the money supply
since September 2008. Capital inflows have been a factor, so
withdrawal does pose a risk. But often overlooked, HK banks
have retreated from overseas interbank markets, which have
historically accounted for c33% of bank assets.
ROA suppressed. Core business growth is required to lift the
ROA of HK banks back to pre-crisis levels. The recent
recovery of loan growth in HK/China is encouraging, as are
wider spreads on corporate loans than in 2007. However, the
slow recovery in the ‘West’ will continue to be a threat to the
ROA recovery despite improving loan and fee growth
opportunities in HK/China. Our 2010 forecasts suggest an
ROA of 1.1%, some 15% below pre-crisis levels of 1.3%
despite 32% expected growth in profits.
Capital not an immediate threat. HK banks aren’t facing
major capital shortfalls from changing capital norms or the
proposed ‘Basel 3’. BOC(HK) plans to issue sub-debt to repay
its parent and ICBC(Asia) may raise equity to fund its growth,
but the effects are manageable, in our view.
Position for the long term. 2H09 earnings are set to rebound
strongly from the low base in 2H08 without hefty impairment
charges; this may be a catalyst for a short-term rally for the
sector. But given the low ROA/ROE and bleak growth
outlook, we would be selective. BOC(HK) is our top pick and
is best positioned for China-driven growth. We also like
ICBC(Asia) and DSF on undemanding valuations.
Fading M&A premium. With China’s banks looking to
preserve capital, we expect M&A speculation to wane, reducing
support for the share prices of family-owned banks like WHB.
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