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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月韩国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Reiterating Our Positive View
• We have set our base case 12-month forward KOSPI target at 1,900 and bull case at 2,300: Our target implies a P/E of 12X on 2010e earnings and a P/B of 1.5x on 2010e book value, respectively. Earnings momentum in Korea remains strong – we forecast 30% growth in 2010, after 56% growth in 2009. Korea will likely soon enter a monetary-tightening cycle, but we expect earnings dilution to be limited. Valuations are still undemanding, trading at 10x 2010e earnings and 1.3x 2010e book value, a 33% discount over regional peers.
• Favorable macro backdrop in 2010: The OECD leading economic indicator, a proxy for Korea’s export growth, continues to move upward, which bodes well for Korean exporters, consumer sentiment, and factory utilization. We expect Korea to enter the restocking phase in 2010, and Korean corporates to be the biggest beneficiaries of consumption growth in China. We expect fiscal policy to remain supportive while monetary policy moves towards a tightening phase, although we do not expect any aggressive rate hikes in the absence of imported inflationary pressure.
•Mindful of much sharper-than-expected KRW strength, but also expecting a global industry up cycle: Although our base-case assumptions for 2010 FX rates are W1100/USD and 10:1 vs. JPY, we have become more mindful of faster-than-expected appreciation of the KRW. We advise investors to employ two potential strategies in light of the current FX-driven environment: 1) Buy beneficiaries from strong KRW/USD: Our sensitivity analysis shows that sharp KRW appreciation adversely affects exporters’ earnings, while helping domestic companies and importers. In terms of companies, the key stocks likely to benefit from a strong KRW are CJCJ, KEPCO, Korean Air, POSCO and Hyundai Steel. 2) Buy Korea’s leading exporters on concerns over strong KRW/JPY: Due to FX concerns, we note that exporters may underperform in the short term. However, any steep correction would provide an opportunity to accumulate major exporters riding on their respective global industry upturn. Within the exporter space, we favor DRAM, LCD and automobiles, which benefit from the global industry cycle upturns and solid demand from the local market.
• Key surprises in 2010: We have identified five key themes to dominate the Korean market in 2010: 1) appreciating KRW; 2) MSCI upgrade; 3) inflation; 4) adoption of K-IFRS; and 5) Korea’s exposure to China.
• Where we differ: Our constructive call on the KOSPI appears in line with the consensus; however, we remain more constructive on exporters and China plays. The consensus expects much stronger KRW appreciation and less favorable cross rates vs. JPY. We also concentrate our call on stocks with a strong global presence and relatively attractive valuations over global peers in semiconductors, consumer discretionary and metals.
• Model Portfolio: For 2010, we adhere to our five key themes and our positive outlook on Korea fundamentals. Our top picks for 2010 are SEC, HMC, KT, Amorepacific, Shinhan FG, Samsung F&M, Korea Zinc, POSCO, and LG Chem. Within the exporter space, we favor leading Korean companies in DRAM, LCD and automobiles, who benefit from industry cycle upturns and strong demand from China.
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