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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
The weakening of European currencies on the back of decoupling of
US relative to European growth is tracking. However, rather than
being a tailwind to European stocks, as we had hoped, this
depreciation is being seen as a reflection of the region’s fiscal
problems.
• Ytd, some of the potential beneficiaries of a weaker Euro have
underperformed the broader market. We see an opportunity here and
continue to recommend an OW in cyclical sectors/stocks leveraged
to a stronger USD and US topline: OW Autos, Semiconductors,
Software, Hotels, Travel and Leisure. All the regional sales exposure
data at stock level can be found in the report.
• One of our themes for 2010 was to refocus on DM vs EM exposure.
However, the speculation regarding the potential Renminbi revaluation
is high and we address its implications on sector and stock positioning.
• JPM's view is that any Renminbi appreciation is likely to be
gradual and relatively small this year, where we forecast
CNY/USD to move from 6.8 current to 6.5 by year end. While a step
change in the Chinese peg is not our base case view, the last time China
revalued its currency, in July ’05, the European sectors which did well
in the aftermath were Metals and Capital Goods.
• Fundamentally, the impact arises both on the demand, as well as
on the cost side. Companies which export to China get an uplift from
stronger purchasing power. On the flipside, corporates which source
from China witness an increasing cost of goods sold.
• We asked our analysts to outline the potential impact of CNY
revaluation at stock and sector level. In terms of sector positioning, we
find the following trades appealing on the back of potential revaluation:
long Metals&Mining, Luxury Goods, Semicon, Cap. Goods, Autos,
Beverages and Energy; short Retailing, Sporting Goods, Handsets.
• At stock level, we highlight the following names as beneficiaries,
purely based on the potential impact from CNY revaluation: Rio Tinto,
BHP Billiton, Vedanta, Swatch, LVMH, ABB, Metso, Atlas Copco,
BMW, Peugeot, VW, Remy Cointreau, Pernod, Statoil, DSM, Wacker,
Ericsson. The stocks that could be adversely affected are: Next, MKS,
Debenhams, Nokia, Puma, Adidas, Electrolux.
Table of Contents
Currencies - Tailwind from weaker Euro & Pound and from
potential Renminbi revaluation ...............................................3
Appendix 1 – MSCI Europe ex-UK geographical revenues
exposure breakdown................................................................9
Appendix 2 – MSCI UK geographical revenues exposure
breakdown ..............................................................................13
Appendix 3 – European stocks’ net exposure to China......15
European Equity Strategy Key Calls and Drivers ................17
Top Picks ................................................................................18
Technical Indicators...............................................................19
Performance ...........................................................................20
Earnings..................................................................................21
Valuations ...............................................................................22
Economic, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Outlook ........24
Sector, Regional and Asset Class Allocations ....................25
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