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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：BNP百富勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Contents
1) 2009 Statistics tell..................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Domestic demand growing 12.2% ..................................................................................................................... 4
Economic structure worsening ........................................................................................................................... 4
2) Our forecast revision................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Revision: Growth overheating ............................................................................................................................ 7
Growth ahead of trend, while liquidity boosts inflation ....................................................................................... 8
Stronger exports; a big swing in net exports...................................................................................................... 8
Reasonable FAI: Curing the bubble and over-capacity ..................................................................................... 9
Risk scenarios: Uncertain export and tightening risk....................................................................................... 10
3) Inflation pressure rising ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
4) Tightening to escalate ............................................................................................................................................................ 15
Where has the RMB10.5t credit gone?............................................................................................................ 15
January tightening just beginning..................................................................................................................... 16
Liquidity still excess......................................................................................................................................... 16
Intensified move after new year ....................................................................................................................... 17
5) All-out tightening to curb housing bubble............................................................................................................................ 19
Curb the bubble: Deja vu in Hainan ................................................................................................................. 19
All out tightening chilled the market ................................................................................................................. 21
Property deflation not fatal to growth ............................................................................................................... 22
6) Macroeconomic monitors ...................................................................................................................................................... 24
GDP growth..................................................................................................................................................... 24
Industrial performance .................................................................................................................................... 25
Sources of Growth........................................................................................................................................... 30
Money and Inflation......................................................................................................................................... 35
Market Performance and rates......................................................................................................................... 38
7) Appendices.............................................................................................................................................................................. 42
1. 12-Months Major Economic Indicators........................................................................................................ 42
2. 12-Month Major Industrial Products ............................................................................................................ 44
3. Industrial Profitability .................................................................................................................................. 45
4. Urban Fixed Asset Investment Growth By Sector....................................................................................... 46
5 . BNP Paribas Forecast Of Major Economic Indicators ................................................................................ 47
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