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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国牙医行业研究报告
【作者】：NORTHCOAST
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：75
【目录或简介】：
4Q09 Dental Industry Report
Overview
l Each month we contact private manufacturers, distributors, and other
industry contacts to discuss current trends in the dental industry. This report
summarizes our 4Q09 research on the dental market.
l In 4Q09, our research suggests North American dental product sales through
distributors have decreased 1.5% year-over-year, up from negative 3.2%
growth in 3Q09.
l We expect dental equipment sales to decrease 5.2% year-over-year in 4Q09,
up from a 6.8% decline last quarter. While we believe high-tech equipment
growth has slowed this quarter following the completion of PDCO’s initial
CEREC AC upgrade program (the key driver for high-tech equipment growth
the last two quarters), our research suggests this has been more than offset
by improving growth in basic equipment (chairs, units, lights, and cabinetry).
l We expect dental consumable sales to increase 0.5% this quarter, up from a
1.8% decline in 3Q09. Our research suggests stronger procedure volume
trends and favorable currency benefits are driving the improvement in dental
consumable results. In total, our research suggests 4Q09 dental consumable
internal growth decreased approximately 1% year-over-year, up slightly from
a 2% decline last quarter.
l With the improvements we are seeing in procedure volumes from our dental
practice and dental lab surveys, we believe the dental consumable market
will return to at least low-single-digit internal growth in 2010.
l We expect North American dental equipment sales to increase 2-3%
year-over-year in 2010, up from an 8% decline in 2009. Notably, our private
industry contacts suggest they are seeing encouraging signs of activity in
large ticket office renovation projects and new dental practice construction,
which bodes well for the basic dental equipment market in 2010.
Conclusion
Based on our recent conversations with dental manufacturers, distributors,
laboratories, and dental practices, we believe growth in the North American
dental market turned positive in December and has remained strong early this
year. For FY10, we are currently modeling 2-3% growth in North American
dental consumable and equipment sales, and upside to consensus EPS
estimates for SIRO, HSIC, and PDCO. However, we believe our
above-consensus estimates could prove to be conservative given the strength
of the market early this year, particularly for basic equipment. We reiterate our
BUY ratings on PDCO, SIRO, HSIC, XRAY, and ALGN.
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