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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月英国房地产行业研究报告
【作者】：比利时联合银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
After two years of dire performance, real estate shares returned
to form in 2009, finishing the year up 7.6%. The stabilisation
and improvement in property values, along with the sector’s
mammoth recapitalisation, has spared many listed companies
from insolvency and established renewed confidence for their
outlook. Although tenant risk and rental prospects remain a
concern, these are confined to certain sub-sectors/locations.
We are therefore encouraged by most companies’
fundamentals and maintain there is a greater probability of
further upside to real estate shares in 2010.
Values have bottomed
With commercial property values having fallen 44% peak to trough, the positive
margin of property yields over funding costs has been re-established. Property
valuations subsequently bounced sharply in the second half of 2009 as limited
transactional evidence, along with a ‘wall of money’ waiting to re-enter the sector,
had a positive effect on prices.
Some problems remain but are limited
Risk of further tenant defaults and negative rental growth are widespread concerns,
and parts of the sector remain highly geared. However, vacancy rates have been
controlled better than expected and consequently the effect on earnings has so far
been marginal. The sector is now largely recapitalised and property companies, for
the first time in a number of years, look fundamentally stronger.
Valuation
We are leaving our estimates broadly unchanged for this year and next, having
factored in a 10-12% bounce in valuations for second half FY2009/10 followed by a
+5-8% rise in FY2010/11. Our assumptions for FY2010/11 may at first seem
aggressive, but this is to reflect the short-term correction in property prices back
from the trough, which one can argue was subject to a liquidity squeeze in the
banking sector. Vendors have deferred transactions although values will increase
post election. Valuations from property companies for the last quarter of 2009
support this, in particular from the property trusts, which release valuations first. We
then assume growth in property values falls back to more modest rates.
Stock selection
Stock selection will be crucial in 2010. Share prices have already adjusted to reflect
differences in balance sheet strength and portfolio quality, resulting in a wide
spectrum of share ratings. However, pricing anomalies exist, and we maintain that
value can be found.
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