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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国物流行业展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
The Outlook for Freight
2010 Forecast Review
For 2010, we are forecasting a freight increase of 2.1%, which is up from our December
forecast of +1.0%.
With the vast majority of companies having reported 4Q09 earnings, we learned a few key
details about the current freight market and corresponding pricing environment. Most
importantly, the consensus from listening to executives across all of our industries was
that the economy is recovering but remains fragile.
While the year-to-year change in volumes was mixed (rails and LTL were largely negative
while TL was generally positive) the general direction was positive with the y/y declines
are becoming less severe as the fourth quarter progressed. Despite the improvement in
volumes, it was not enough to warrant meaningful price increases. Furthermore, judging
by the sell-off in many of the truckload and forwarder stocks, it was clear that 4Q09 pricing,
as well as guidance, came in below investor expectations.
According to our Freight Forecaster, improvements in the freight market should accelerate
in the 2010 second quarter – especially when viewed on a year-to-year basis (Exhibit 2).
In absolute terms (Exhibit 3), we expect to see a step up in Q2, followed by a period where
freight activity levels off – and at a level that is still well below the 2006-2008 trend.
Henry Mo, an economist in Credit Suisse’s US Economics Team, developed the freight
forecasting model used in this report based on the team’s macroeconomic forecasts.
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