2010年1月英国银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月英国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：
The risks relate to regulation: the cost of
wholesale maturity extension, increased
capital backing under Basel 3, and
potential loss of proprietary income
􀀗 The positives are the industry’s capacity
to set pricing and strong capital
generation as impairments recede
􀀗 We retain Overweight (V) ratings on the
UK banks; our preferred relative ‘pecking
order’ is Lloyds, Barclays, RBS
The official cost of the bailout has fallen from GBP20-50bn
to GBP8bn according to the Pre-Budget Report, but in 2010
UK banks will face continued demands for retribution from
the media, politicians and regulators.
For some investors this will mean UK banks remain
‘uninvestable’. We believe there is a fundamental
inconsistency in imposing draconian capital adequacy
standards, yet not allowing institutions to generate an
adequate economic return. UK managements point to returns
on equity eventually recovering to mid-teens levels, and this
implies that much of the cost of tighter capital and liquidity
standards will be borne by customers, not shareholders.
The best evidence of this is in the UK mortgage market,
where the gap between new business and portfolio spreads
indicates the latter should rise 100bp. For Lloyds, with its
GBP350bn mortgage book, the benefit should outweigh the
cost of extra liquidity and transforming the maturity of
wholesale funding.
The lesson to be learned from 2009 is that low nominal
interest rates exert a much bigger influence on impairments
than the contraction of GDP. Although rates will be on an
upward trend, we doubt an eventual rise to 3.5% will be
sufficient to de-rail favourable impairment trends.
Characteristically, bank stocks outperform when it becomes
evident that the peak of the impairment has passed and hence
we remain Overweight on Barclays and RBS, despite the
massive headwinds created by political and regulatory
uncertainties. It will be a rough ride for shareholders, but we
believe ultimately a rewarding one.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 银行业 Shareholders 研究报告 英国 银行业

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