挪威银行业研究报告2009年2月

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Al Capone once said: “Everyone can be bought; it is just a matter of price”.
Today, credit can be granted at mobster margins, but for most Nordic real
estate companies refinancing is not expected to be an issue the next 12-18
months. Costs on old and unhedged loans are heavily reduced as interest rates
have plunged. However, tenant bankruptcy and increased vacancy have
become a threat. We see an attractive risk reward relation as we assume credit
margins to decrease over time. We also expect reduced cost of financing to
compensate for vacancy and lower market rents. The main trigger is
nevertheless that the credit market must start functioning.
Company Rec Target Price P/E 09E P/E 10E P/E 11E
Castellum SEK BUY 70.0 54.8 11.1 10.7 10.4
Citycon EURBUY 2.1 1.6 10.4 9.9 9.3
Fabege SEK HOLD 28.0 27.7 6.6 6.8 7.0
Hufvudstaden SEK BUY 58.0 48.9 16.7 16.6 16.3
Klövern SEK BUY 23.0 16.9 6.5 6.8 6.9
Kungsleden SEK BUY 48.0 43.0 10.6 10.8 10.4
Northern Logistic PropeNOK BUY 37.0 10.8 2.6 2.6 2.5
Norwegian Property NOK BUY 21.0 5.3 2.8 2.3 2.1
Olav Thon EiendomsselNOK BUY 770.0 540.0 9.4 8.4 8.3
Sponda EUR BUY 4.5 3.2 6.6 6.3 4.9
Wihlborgs Fastligheter SEK BUY 132.0 95.0 8.9 8.9 8.9
• We initiate coverage of Klövern- KLOV, Sponda-SDA1V and Citycon- CTY1V.
Recommendations (based mainly on yield evaluations):
- Klövern Rec: Buy - TP: 23 SEK – Equals NAV09 yield ~7.2%
- Sponda Rec: Buy - TP: 4.50 EUR – Equals NAV09 yield ~6.5%
- Citycon Rec: Buy - TP: 2.10 EUR – Equals NAV09 yield ~6.4%
• We see the highest potential in NPRO and NLPR, but note that these stocks have a
significant higher risk due to lower ICR* and higher LTV than peers.
• Top picks are Olav Thon and Castellum, as both stocks have attractive implied
yields, solid LTV and large and diversified property portfolios.
• Reduced target on NPRO to 21 NOK. NPRO is an event stock. NPRO has three loans
maturing late 2009 to 2010 and will not be able to pay down this debt based on
operational CF. Most challenging is a 1.650 NOKm unsecured loan maturing late
2010. Hence, a sale of assets or a rollover of debt is essential. At the current share
price a fire sale will be far better for existing shareholders than a diluting share
issue. We estimate a 4-5 NOKbn asset sale to pay down debt if rollover of debt is
not possible. TP 21 = NAV09est at 6.6% yield. NPRO has a BB+ credit rating.
• Companies with a hedging policy are to report large financial losses in 4Q08 on
interest rate derivatives. The value of hedging securities has plunged as interest
rates have dropped. These losses are foremost an IFRS effect (no CF), but hit book
value of equity. (Normally not part of LTV covenants). Real estate companies hold
securities to maturity as part of their financing strategy.
• Vacancy will bring rental income down, but we do not see any companies breaching
ICR. NPRO is the most sensitive to vacancy, but may stand <10% drop in net rental
income 2008 vs. 2010 on ICR covenants.
• The investment conclusion is “overweight”, but we advise investors to diversify
investments. We evaluate the risk-reward as attractive given the upside potential.
Risk is best evaluated using ICR and LTV ratios, but upside potential is highly
correlated with risk/leverage. Better property transactions and credit markets are
the biggest triggers.
ICR*= EBITDA adj / Net interest cost: If ICR ratio <1 financial cost exceeds operational rental
income, higher ICR = safer bet

Table of Content
WHAT’S NEXT??...................................................................................................... 3
KEY MACRO FOR REAL ESTATE....................................................................... 7
MAKING THE ESTIMATES................................................................................. 12
COMPANY SLIDES................................................................................................ 14
RATIOS 1 / 2............................................................................................................. 15
RATIOS 2 / 2............................................................................................................. 16
PROPERTY 1/2.......................................................................................................... 17
PROPERTY 2/2.......................................................................................................... 18
SHARE PERFORMANCE 1/2....................................................................................... 19
SHARE PERFORMANCE 2/2....................................................................................... 20
ESTIMATES .............................................................................................................. 21
CASTELLUM........................................................................................................... 23
CITYCON................................................................................................................. 33
FABEGE ................................................................................................................... 36
HUFVUDSTADEN................................................................................................... 36
KLÖVERN................................................................................................................ 36
KUNGSLEDEN........................................................................................................ 36
NORTHERN LOGISTIC PROPERTY ASA (NLPR) .......................................... 36
NORWEGIAN PROPERTY (NPRO) .................................................................... 36
OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP................................................................... 36
SPONDA ................................................................................................................... 36
WIHLBORGS FASTLIGHETER FASTLIGHETER.......................................... 36

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