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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚洲宏观策略展望
【作者】：花旗银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：74
【目录或简介】：
Asia’s Great Catch Up
There are many reasons to be bullish about EM Asia’s accelerated catch up
with the developed world – Strong balance sheets of governments, households
and corporates provide huge leeway for “re-leveraging”, capital ratios of banks
in EM Asia are among the highest globally, prospects for a technological catchup
(Korea, China, Taiwan, India and Singapore) look stronger here than most of
EM, and demographic profiles remain mostly favorable, especially in India and
pockets of Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam).
Rising share to global GDP means EM Asia has significant room to take a larger
share of global capital flows (managing will be key), and domestic policies will
have greater spillover impact on the rest of the world. The penchant of Asian
countries to keep currencies cheap to maintain industrial competitiveness will
face increasing global resistance as the region gets larger—foremost here
would be the RMB.
We remain optimistic about Asia’s growth this year, but note higher inflation
risk – China is now likely to tighten slightly more than earlier expected. Asia’s
Nov-Dec exports have surprised positively, though QoQ 4Q 09 real GDP is likely
to decelerate from the outsized gains in 2Q and 3Q. However, inflation also
surprised positively in many economies, and we now expect slightly more policy
tightening in China than before.
Macro strategy – 1) Positive Asia FX view remains unchanged – strong regional
growth and increased inflation concerns in China should also reaffirm earlier
(rather than later) RMB appreciation – we continue to like KRW, INR and IDR
(for the carry) and see opportunity to sell USDCNY; 2) Asia rates– we see
opportunities to put on steepeners in Korea, stay long 5yr MGS, and think the
rates sell off in China looks a bit overdone; 3) External debt –buying the Korea
vs. China CDS basis at lower than current levels presents a good insurance
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