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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月加拿大银行业研究报告
【作者】：CORMARK
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
for a meager 3% revenue growth in 2010 versus 18% in 2009 (on an adjusted basis). As
balance sheets and AUM grow, we expect revenues to increase by 7% in 2011 over 2010
with no pick up from trading (another conservative assumption).
Operating leverage of 1% or better can be attained as long revenues grow 3% or more.
There are a number of reasons for our view: 1) The banks possess both the power and the
desire to contain expenses. 2) All banks are incented to grow EPS and generate capital in
the current environment through both balance sheet management and earnings growth. 3)
The business unit in which we expect a decline in revenues (investment banking) is also
the business unit with the most capability (and management willingness/eagerness) to
lower costs in lockstep with lower revenues.
When we layer on a view that loan losses likely peaked in 2009, we believe the risk to
our estimates is to the upside. Our current forecast is for loan losses to decline by a mere
1% in 2010 (call it flat) with a more significant 24% decline in 2011.
Current concerns on capital issues are warranted but more than likely already priced in.
There is always some risk in gauging what regulators do and what might happen
economically between now and then. We believe there will be some pressure on TD and
BNS but also believe both companies could manage through this period without raising
equity. All the same, we discount these two stocks for the extra uncertainty surrounding
their capital adequacy.
Recent stock price weakness and generally “bad” sentiment is creating an opportunity.
Valuations currently sit at 11.5x fwd P/E versus long-term averages of 12.0x. On our
estimates this differential is further exaggerated. As we look out to 2011, banks are
trading at approximately 9x our 2011 EPS estimates.
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