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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月加拿大银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：120
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Industry Risk/Reward …………… 3
Morgan Stanley Bank Analyst Industry Views …………… 4
Canadian Banks: Summary of Key Investment Debates …………… 4
Top Picks: Banks Geared Toward International Recovery and Growth …………… 5
TD Bank: Among Canadian banks, TD is best positioned to benefit from a US recovery.
Bank of Nova Scotia: With 29% of loans outside North America, Scotia is a good way to play our theme of leverage
to international growth.
Less Risk: Canadian Economy, Canadian Banks Well Positioned …………… 6
Less Reward: Canadian Economic Recovery Is Generally in the Price …………… 7
Investment Debate: How High Will Losses Go? …………… 8
We expect cum losses for the cycle will be in line with prior cycle. We expect an improving economic environment to
have a faster impact on credit costs than consensus forecasts. We are in line with consensus for 1H10, but expect
faster normalization in 2H10. We forecast credit costs down 6% y/y in 2010.
Investment Debate: What About Leverage? …………… 9
Canadian banks are subject to a regulatory assets-to-capital leverage ratio. Banks have delevered below their
8-year historical average and have maintained strong capital ratios through the credit cycle. We believe Canadian
banks have lower risk balance sheets than their US peers.
Valuation …………… 10
Stock Picks …………… 11
TD Bank (TD, C$66, Overweight, Price Target C$85)
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS, C$47, Overweight, Price Target C$58)
Canadian Imperial Bank of Comm. (CM, C$65, Underweight, Price Target C$66)
Bank of Montreal (BMO, C$52, Equal-weight, Price Target C$60)
National Bank (NA, C$60, Equal-weight, Price Target C$67)
Royal Bank of Canada (RY, C$57, Equal-Weight, Price Target C$65)
Appendix …………… 27
Financial Models …………… 93
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