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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国石油开采设备行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：58
【目录或简介】：
Transocean (RIG): The Case for the Jackup
Spin-Off
■ Discounted valuation reflects jackup strategy. RIG shares continue to trade
at a meaningful discount to peers. One of the factors that has contributed to this
discounted valuation, in our view, has been uncertainty related to
management’s plans to distribute excess free cash flow. While we expect the
discount to narrow given the company’s shift to a meaningful dividend
distribution model, we believe another factor that has contributed to this
discounted valuation is disappointment regarding the company’s jackup
strategy.
■ RIG upgraded its jackup fleet through GSF merger. In Q407, RIG completed
its merger with GlobalSantaFe (GSF), creating the industry’s most capable
deepwater and internationally focused premium jackup operator. One of the key
objectives of the transaction was to enhance the quality of RIG’s jackup fleet, as
GSF had arguably one of the industry’s most technically capable jackup fleets.
■ In the downturn, RIG’s strategy has included aggressive rig stackings.
Since peaking at 333 rigs in September 2008, international jackup demand has
decline by 9% or 30 rigs, while overall supply has increased by 28 units. In
response to this deterioration in demand, RIG’s strategy has included an
aggressive stacking of jackups in situations where limited near-term prospects
for future work exist in order to reduce opex. In total, RIG has stacked 25 rigs
following the implementation of this strategy.
■ Loss of jackup ‘mojo’. While Transocean (RIG) remains our top pick in the
group, we have disagreed with the company’s strategic direction regarding its
jackup fleet. We believe this passive approach has resulted in the company
losing its competitive edge. Since demand peaked, RIG’s jackup rigcount has
declined by 25 rigs, while the rest of the industry is only down by 5 units. As
such, RIG’s fleet has disproportionately accounted for 83% of the total decline
in the international jackup rig count.
■ Time to dust off spin-off playbook. In 2004, RIG completed the spin-off of its
TODCO subsidiary that was focused on the shallow water GOM market through
an IPO. The spin-off of TODCO was highly successful, allowing RIG to highgrade
its assets base, improve its focus on the deepwater, and deleverage the
balance sheet through the rationalization of its TODCO stake. Importantly, the
shares meaningfully outperformed the peer group from the IPO through the
subsequent merger of TODCO with Hercules Offshore (HERO).
■ Conditions ripe for another TODCO. Careful examination of RIG’s jackup
assets that were amalgamated through several mergers (GlobalSantaFe,
Sedco Forex, and R&B Falcon) suggest there are many jackups in the
company’s fleet that are not a good long-term strategic fit with the company’s
high-spec floater fleet. Given the significant change in macro fundamentals
since the GSF merger was consummated, we believe conditions are ripe for
another jackup spin-off that could include a fleet of lower specification jackups.
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
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