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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国航空行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
Chinese Airlines
Appear Attractive But Priced
In; Prepare To Take Profits
Investment conclusion: While China’s air traffic
demand should remain healthy with stable load factors
in next 12-18 months or so, we believe the current high
valuations have made the risk reward profiles less
favorable to invest in Chinese airlines. Thus we maintain
our In-Line view on the industry.
Debates: 1) How sustainable are the high valuations for
Chinese airlines? 2) Would there be overcapacity risk?
3) How will HSR (High Speed Railways) impact on
Chinese airlines? 4) How much more will the Chinese
Yuan appreciate in 2010-11? 5) How likely is big
industry consolidation to occur in the near future?
Catalysts: 1) Positive earnings to be announced for
FY09 suggesting a strong turnaround in profitability;
2) Significant rebound in global traveling and air cargo
demand; 3) RMB appreciation resuming after stalling for
the past seven months; 4) Potential M&A activity or
capital injections.
Valuations: Trading at 1.6x-4.7x P/BV, Chinese airline
stocks are valued at 29%-129% premiums to historical
means and 23%-261% to the levels of regional peers,
which we believe should have fully priced in the positive
catalysts mentioned above. While positive news flows
on demand growth and RMB appreciation could further
support the premium valuations, the risk reward profiles
are becoming less favorable.
Stock calls: Downgrade CEA to UW from EW on high
valuation, with new PT of HK$2.47 showing 19%
downside. Maintain UW rating on CSA at a new PT of
HK$2.43, implying 18% downside. Maintain EW on Air
China with new PT at HK$6.95. We believe investors
should sell into further potential stock rallies led by
positive news flow on the industry.
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