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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月沙特水泥行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Underinvestment in infrastructure and the need to
accommodate rising population growth has encouraged the
Saudi government to announce that it would spend
USD400bn on infrastructure over the next five years from
2009. The 23% growth in cement sales volumes in 2009
bears witness to this, and our analysis of construction
projects suggests that their value will increase by 30% in
2010e resulting in 22% growth in local cement demand.
While demand has been strong, supply has been stronger,
leading to price erosion. Capacity increased from 29mtpa in
2007 to 47.4mtpa in 2009, while demand stood at 36.7mt in
2009 (and 27mt in 2007). We believe the pace of price erosion
will now slow as the growth in demand eats into surplus
capacity; more importantly, however, strong demand will mean
several companies to reach full capacity quickly, in our view.
We therefore favour players with surplus capacity, which can
benefit from excess local demand and/or from exports if they
decide to meet the conditions for the removal of the embargo.
Our preferred plays and Overweights are Saudi Cement
Company (SCC) and Tabuk Cement (upgraded from Neutral),
both of which are trading on a 2011e PE of around 10x. For
SCC, our estimates may even be on the cautious side if the
margin improvements shown in 2009 continue. For Tabuk, we
believe it will no longer suffer pricing pressure as it has
accepted the conditions for the export ban being removed. We
remain Neutral on the remaining stocks but remove the
volatility flag in all cases. The sector looks cheap compared to
global peers on an EBITDA/tonne measure (more appropriate
than EV/tonne) at 2010e of USD31 versus USD24.
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