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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月印度证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Five inter-related, fundamental vulnerabilities or tendencies of the Indian
economy are: 1) over-consumption; 2) over-government, 3) under-savings;
4) under-investment; and 5) inflation. All are worsening with increasing
disappointment risks versus expectations. Policies and consensus remain
unworried, which may keep the market stable to positive in the near term but
at rising long-term costs, in our view.
■
Everyone has own soft points: Most economies have specific tendencies
making growth unstable over time. Some tend to over-invest and some overconsume.
Some fall into deflationary spirals and some have inflation risks.
Some governments save too much and some spend too much. We study
India’s tendencies and conclude that the current growth mix is unsustainable.
■
Many lessons from long histories: Six decades of data show that the
longest and the fastest periods of Indian growth and contraction were
accompanied by similar trends in savings and investment rates. Possibly
due to excessive consumption and government efforts, these trends are
moving in a wrong direction now compared to 2003-08. They might be also
adding to inflation.
■
Near-term stability with long-term costs: Pro-growth policies could keep
market focus away from the main consequences of higher inflation and
deficits for a few more months. But the longer the economy grows without
faster growing investments, the more the imbalances to be solved at a later
date. We expect the market to yield negative returns over 12 months and
recommend a defensive bias. Apart from a preference for low beta sectors,
our preferred growth sector is industrials.
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