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雷达卡
Swiss Equity Ideas
QUARTERLY
Spring Edition
Geographical and sector considerations
From a regional point of view, Credit Suisse’s global strategy team has left its
position on continental European equities unchanged and recommends a 20%
underweight stance. Compared with other regions, we think Continental Europe
has the weakest fiscal and monetary response to the current economic crisis,
limited labour market flexibility and an unattractive earnings outlook. The
strategy team continues to favour companies in the pharma and insurance
sectors. With its two large drug companies, Roche and Novartis, we view
Switzerland as one of the more attractive markets in Europe.
Lowering our 12-month SMI target to 6000
We derive our 12-month target for the Swiss Market Index (SMI) from our
analysts’ price targets for individual stocks. Based on this, we lower our 12-
month target from 7,000 to 6,000, which represents potential upside of c17%.
We remain constructive on a 12-month view. We expect high volatility to reduce
further as uncertainties diminish about the impact of the financial liquidity and
credit crisis on the real economy and hence corporate earnings, and
macroeconomic news flow become less negative. Our overall investment style
remains rather defensively oriented as we currently have no major Swiss
cyclical on an Outperform rating.
Swiss Top Pick portfolio: Replacing Swisscom, BCV and Synthes
Our Swiss top pick portfolio, last published 22 January 2009, has outperformed
the SMI by 3.4% over the three-month period. We have slightly adjusted our
barbell approach, overweighting defensive names at one end and playing
slightly more volatile ones at the other. Among our top picks, we have replaced
BCV, Swisscom and Synthes with ADB, Aryzta and Tecan, which we also
added to our high conviction list Mid Cap 10 in Europe on 16 March 2009.
Table of contents
Investment summary 3
Swiss economic outlook 4
Geographical equity strategy 8
Swiss strategy 12
Swiss top pick ideas list 19
Nestlé 21
Julius Baer 24
Zurich Financial Services 27
EFG International 29
Tecan 32
Aryzta 35
Sonova 37
Advance Digital Broadcast 40
Actelion 42
SGS Surveillance 45
Appendix 48
Events calendar 60
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