2010年3月亚太证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚太证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：

Asian markets have rallied 10% in the past month. MSCI APxJ is now
flat year to date. With the exception of China, positive momentum
has resumed for country indices. Commodities and cyclicals have led
the recovery.
• The APxJ 2011 EPS integer has declined modestly to 34. The 2011E
P/E is 12x and 15x using our year-end index target of 530. Our top
trade is to focus on relatively positive earnings revisions. On page 4
we list stocks with superior earnings revisions and check our macro
strategy against the Quant team’s results.
• We also debate closing our UW in asset inflation plays. The J.P.
Morgan Chinese property developer basket (JPHCHPPY) has
underperformed the region by 40% since 1 July 2009. Our conclusion
is that at best there are only trading opportunities available. With
governments maintaining policies against asset inflation, meaningful
outperformance is unlikely. We are reversing the tactical downgrade of
banks and moving to overweight. Banks are a fundamentally
attractive sector and the equity overhang now looks more modest.
• The base case is that developed world growth exceeds low
expectations; technology and transportation are our preferred
sectors.
• Ghosts of 2004 haunt the Chinese market. The underperformance of
Chinese equities should continue due to the overheating/hard landing
debate, poor relative earnings revisions and SOE policy risk.
• Key asset allocation calls:
OW: India, Taiwan and the Philippines
OW: Banks, technology, and transportation
UW: China, Australia, and Hong Kong
UW: Telecoms and utilities
For our APxJ Key Trade stock ideas, click here to download the
Bloomberg sheet.

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